The FOMC statement this week made a great deal about what amounts to charges of statistical impropriety toward the BEA’s GDP figures. The first quarter always seems to amount to a slow part of the season, which it really is because there is the massive Christmas buildup. It is clear that the Federal Reserve, referring to this not just in [...]
To preserve any idea that the US is not heading into recession, the FOMC is now wholly reliant on statistical processes within the BEA’s use of the Census Bureau’s updated ARIMA-X13 modeling system. It is amazing to see this policy body that once proclaimed, unequivocally and forcefully, that it could perform the monetary equivalent of sorcery and alchemy reduced to [...]
After two successive months of contraction in retail sales (in real terms), April’s estimated balance was a bounce higher. Given the volatile nature of economic data, this upward move is not unexpected. Total retail sales (including food, autos and gasoline) grew 4.5% in April 2013 Y/Y, much better than the 0.98% and 1.95% in February and March, respectively. Despite that [...]
Seasonal adjustments or unadulterated data? Imputations and trend-cycle analysis or extrapolating trends from raw data? After beating consensus estimates for two months in August and September, seasonally-adjusted retail sales came back down to earth in October. One of the primary drags on growth was a rather large decline in automobile sales – a topic we have covered extensively in our [...]
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