The problem with a high rate of inventory build is that it eventually has to go somewhere. In an actual economic “boom” that isn’t much of a concern as businesses remain relatively confident that even if inventory is high in one month it will be easily disposed, profitably, in the next. That is the dominant narrative that seems to be [...]
Today’s employment release has been described, in numerous places, as “perfect.” I am hard-pressed to disagree, as the report itself contained absolutely everything an economist would want to show payroll strength (economic strength is another matter entirely). The Establishment Survey itself was overshadowed, though satisfying, by the Household Survey and especially a jump in the labor force. By the numbers: [...]
Honestly, there really isn’t much to say now that hasn’t already been said. At what point can we expect convention and mainstream commentary to stop referring to monetarism as “stimulus”? If we are to have a unified and ubiquitous qualifying description of the idea, it is far closer to toxin or poison than anything that suggests positivity. Nominal is meaningless, which [...]
There is an undoubted shift in the behavior of consumers, including and especially during the peak retail season between Thanksgiving and Christmas. However, to say that is the sole reason for the decline in actual sales volume is to stretch that truth into (in many cases intentional) utter misdirection. The initial indications from the retail outlets are so far beyond [...]
To add another point to my earlier post on price changes and spending/revenue patterns, Gallup’s various economic polls show what I think are exactly the same problems. In the daily spending poll, the amount of self-reported spending has not really grown going all the way back to February 2013. Twenty months of largely stagnation is worse than it sounds given [...]
When QQE was first officially introduced, I produced what I thought would be a “template” for the trajectory of the Japanese economy. On a strictly reasoned basis, without any forward calculations or regressions, the Japanese, and Bank of Japan in particular, were making a choice with what I thought was very little chance of ultimate success. You can understand, somewhat, [...]
Gallup’s daily spending tracking poll dipped slightly in August, but what matters most is that spending levels have been flat now going back more than a year. There is no insight provided as to why that has occurred, only that people at the bottom ends of the income spectrum are unwilling or, more likely, unable to increase their economic activity. [...]
The disappointment from retail sales has been foretold by numerous other indications for months now. The idea that the economy would suddenly shoot higher after the “aberration” of the wintry first quarter was predicated almost exclusively on the mainstream interpretation of payrolls. For all that hope and optimism, it has never gone further than the BLS’ Current Employment Survey as [...]
Not much needs to be said about Japan, as they continue to get what they wanted. While mainstream “news” outlets have been framing this as “not as bad as it could have been” based on the expectations of economists, that is an awfully thin, but familiar, basis for taking the “bright side.” What has been seemingly far less reported is [...]
Summing up the holiday season, we keep hearing about resilient consumers as estimated sales come in a little better than anticipated earlier, while retailers purportedly are relieved despite limited incomes and a drop in actual traffic. And the entire season was marked by discounts, but in this final analysis that was supposed to be a positive factor. The gain exceeded [...]
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