The wholesale sales and inventory figures were significantly revised this month going back more than a decade. The largest revisions were evident after 2007, which changes slightly the depth of the Great Recession and the “briskness” of the stunted recovery thereafter. Though both sales and inventory figures are much higher than previously believed (until they get revised again), the economic [...]
The estimates for wholesale sales and inventory complete the devastation of January’s economic landscape. Overall sales fell by the largest amount, nearly 4%, since the bottom of the Great Recession. Inventories, however, continue to build despite the slowing sales, leaving the inventory-to-sales ratio far above either the most recent “cycle” peak or even the last one. The greatest part of [...]
The problem with a high rate of inventory build is that it eventually has to go somewhere. In an actual economic “boom” that isn’t much of a concern as businesses remain relatively confident that even if inventory is high in one month it will be easily disposed, profitably, in the next. That is the dominant narrative that seems to be [...]
One of the primary criticisms I have leveled against economic interpretations based solely on statistics like GDP is that they are relative in the narrowest sense. GDP especially compares one quarter to the prior, meaning that it is susceptible to those that extrapolate short-term trends. In this current age of monetary elongation in the “business cycle”, that is a dangerous [...]
The wholesale trade figures still confound both the “rebound” narrative and the drastic revisions of GDP made in July. The broader context of wholesale trade remains as it has been since early 2013, as although growth appears to be increasing it is doing so at a deficient rate. That counts for both inventory and sales, though there is, I believe, [...]
Wholesales sales and inventories are still relatively better in June than earlier in the year, though the level of inventory looks nothing like what is being counted for GDP. Overall, the pace of sales continues to be relatively stuck in a low-growth track that shows little signs of being elevated. For an economy being determined marginally by inventory, supply chain [...]
The wholesale inventory estimates seem to have raised more than a bit of optimism. I think that is highly misplaced for both GDP and the economy. On the GDP calculation side, there needs to be another huge gain in inventory to be “highly supportive” due to the second derivative nature of the estimate. As for the economy, even on a [...]
For a simple frame of reference, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of increase in GDP in the first quarter of 2014 was $60 billion in nominal terms. The BEA calculates that nominally business inventories grew by $112 billion in the same period. On a back of the envelope basis, inventory growth was twice that of GDP and without it [...]
The economic theme of the 2013 was inventory as it accumulated in the retail apex of the supply chain. Wholesalers have been far more cautious about expanding inventory, coming far short of even 2012 levels after the dramatic experience after the 2012 holiday season. Despite this conscious desire to not overextend, they may not have much choice given the situation [...]
Outside of household income, the main marginal economic factor has been inventory changes. Manufacturers since the obvious 2012 slowdown have been extremely reticent to hold inventory, and certainly at a rate well-below the pre-crisis period. That has made the past two years very unique in that respect, as manufacturing sales and inventory have closely tracked each other. Where it gets [...]
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