Research notes from Macro Research Board: While non-U.S. equity markets have massively underperformed the U.S. in recent years, especially in U.S. dollar terms, there are signs of a reversal in a number of key bourses. Our favored non-U.S. markets (EM commodity importers, the euro area and Japan) have recently edged higher in relative terms, even adjusting for their currency weakness. [...]
Today's world is one of historically high US equity valuations, equity buybacks but an otherwise lack of breadth in equity performance, and little to no yield for short duration fixed income. Where does one look for value? Remember that "value" is representative of things that appear on sale relative to the alternatives. This means that there is a relative excess [...]
The S&P 500 Index ((IVV)) zig-zagged with no certain direction for the first part of the year, gaining just over 1% during this somewhat volatile period. The index sits right above support at the 50-day moving average. Holding that level will be key to the direction of the market in the coming weeks. The S&P 500 Value Index ((IVE)), which consists primarily [...]
After breaking through both moving averages in October, the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV) recovered in a matter of weeks, and after stagnating in January, has continued its surge to new all-time highs. If it can't blast through the 2120 level, look for the index to test the 50-day moving average at the 2065 level. The S&P 500 is up 2.58% for [...]
The GSCI Commodity Index ((GSG)) consists primarily of Energy, but also includes Agriculture, Industrial Metals, Livestock, and Precious Metals as part of its holdings. The index broke down during the month of July on the backs of a stronger US Dollar and Saudia Arabia’s strategic decision to hold production levels. It now finds itself just under the 50-day moving average [...]
The US currency is strengthening in conjunction with the a strengthening US economy (proxied here by employment growth and surveys of businesses on hiring intentions and growth prospects). The last time we had this environment was in the 90's. The combination of increased spending power accompanied by job growth could result in an empowered US consumer. We have seen personal consumption [...]
Since November of 2014, the S&P 500 Index (IVV) has been traded within a range of 100 or so points. During that time, it has broken the 50-day moving average a total of 4 times, but has yet to break support at the 200. And this coming week might see us break it for the fifth time if we can't clear [...]
Here is a summary of this week's research from our strategic partner MRB. Allocation: Trades to consider: "Short global luxury stocks versus multiline retailers." "Short 10-year U.S. Treasuries outright." As always, please feel free to contact me with any questions or concerns. Find out about your personal risk profile and working with Alhambra Click here to sign up for our free [...]
The S&P 500 Index ((IVV)) zig-zagged with no certain direction for the first part of the year, losing just under 3% during this highly volatile period. The index broke support at the 50-day moving average and now finds itself testing the 200-day MA. Holding that level will be key. The S&P 500 Value Index ((IVE)), which consists primarily of US large-cap value stocks [...]
From strategic research partner MRB...with Alhambra's added commentary. QE is primarily a signaling device to demonstrate policymakers’ commitment to fostering the recovery and sustaining a cohesive monetary union. The policy is implicitly designed to reduce the equity risk premium. We expect a gradual re-rating of euro area equities. A cheaper euro, itself associated with QE, will also boost globally-oriented equity [...]
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