Inspector Gregory: Is there any point to which you would wish to draw my attention? Sherlock Holmes: To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time. Insepctor Gregory: The dog did nothing in the night-time. Sherlock Holmes: That was the curious incident The Adventure of The Silver Blaze, 1892 You can observe a lot by just watching. Yogi [...]
The AI trade hit some turbulence last week as concerns emerged about the growth rate of the industry. The technology sector ETF (XLK) lost 7.7% last week and is down nearly 10% since peaking on 10/6. The semiconductor industry ETF (XSD) fell 12.5% and is nearing bear market territory (-17.3%) since peaking the same day. What's more interesting, from a [...]
A Glimpse of the Future? I was reading through some blog posts this morning and ran across one titled 'The Stock Market Does Not Equal The Economy". I've heard this phrase numerous times in my career, usually the elongated version: "The stock market is not the economy and the economy is not the stock market." It is an odd thing [...]
Meta released their personal AI agent, Muse, last month, promising that it is safe, secure, and private. They say it “actually does the work” rather than just acting as a chatbot. It “helps people stay on top of things, takes tasks and projects off their plate, and turns long-term goals into action plans. Muse runs on a dedicated secure computer [...]
I know I've written about rates and bonds seemingly every week, but it's been necessary. Last week, the 10-year yield finally broke above 5%, an event I've anticipated for years, rising nearly 19 basis points to close at 5.18%. With that move, the 10-year rate is back to normal — right around the 40-year average. The low-rate regime that prevailed [...]
Whenever people say, 'Oh, well, the Treasury Secretary is taking a risk,' well, it's my dream. I have asymmetric information. I am the house now. So when we intervene with the Japanese yen, I have pretty good insight into what the Japanese, what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what Japanese policymakers are going to do. You can [...]
Questions, questions, questions. Investors always have lots of questions, most of them about the future, which makes them very hard impossible to answer. That doesn't mean the questions aren't worth asking though, which is why I do this every few months. Thinking about what we don't know can prepare us for the future no matter how it turns out. And [...]
Faced with a choice between changing one's mind and proving there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy with the proof. J.K. Galbraith I've learned so much from my mistakes, I'm thinking of making a few more. Anonymous I was prepared to dislike our new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh. His past track record at the Fed stood [...]
You can't take the same actions as everyone else and expect to outperform. In order to outperform, by definition, you have to depart from the crowd. You have to hold a different position. If your portfolio looks like everyone else's, you may do well, or you may do poorly, but you can't do different. And being different is absolutely essential [...]
It just goes to show ya. It's always something. If it's not one thing, it's another. - Roseanne Roseannadanna, played by Gilda Radner on SNL So, was that it? Is the AI boom over? It seems like just a month or so ago that any stock even vaguely associated with AI was going up on a daily basis. Nvidia was [...]
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