Stocks

What Powell’s Not Telling You; Half of Jobs Already Lost May Not Be Coming Back Anytime Soon

By |2020-06-02T18:46:57-04:00June 2nd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Time may not heal all wounds, after all. One thing it does do is clarify. There was a time not all that long ago when 20 million sounded absolutely enormous. How quaint today. At the end of March, initial jobless claims in the US were surpassing that unthinkable level leaving everyone to hope it wouldn’t get much worse. Having blown [...]

What Flood?

By |2020-05-28T19:33:20-04:00May 28th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Another 2.1 million Americans have filed this week with their state governments in order to determine their eligibility for unemployment insurance. That brings the 10-week disaster total for these initial jobless claims to an enormous 40.8 million. How did it get to be so many, and why, as states are opening back up, is it continuing in the millions all [...]

The *Optimists* Have Some Terrible News For the ‘V’

By |2020-05-27T19:18:33-04:00May 27th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

It has to be a combination of confirmation bias and rationalizations. Not even the official story finishes up with the fairy tale ending. The “V” people seem to be ignoring what the most optimistic group is actually saying. And these optimists absolutely want it to be that way.It bears repeating the “V” case; that once the non-economic shutdowns are lifted, [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 10: *The* Illusion

By |2020-05-26T14:55:26-04:00May 26th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Google: https://shorturl.at/fpsEJ Alhambra-tube: https://youtu.be/P7Wx7AYFDsQ Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ [Emil's Summary] Then: a man or a woman who is a medium or a wizard was ascribed powers of enchantment and the supernatural. Now: a monetary technocrat is imbued with necromancy, conjuring money out of thin air and levitating stock markets.About: We are informed by the financial press the [...]

Beware of Accepted Wisdom

By |2020-05-26T13:04:47-04:00May 26th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Most everyone has heard of the Chinese proverb – or curse – that wishes one to live in “interesting times”. You’ve probably also heard that in Chinese the word “crisis” is composed of two symbols, one that denotes “danger” and another that means “opportunity”. Well we certainly live in interesting times and there is indeed a crisis. We won’t know [...]

Stocks Haven’t Been Moneyed

By |2020-05-18T19:57:09-04:00May 18th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Why didn’t 1987 turn out to be 1929 redux? Alan Greenspan was deathly afraid this would be the case, and in turn he made everyone else unnecessarily upset along the same lines. Especially Congress. The fact that both stock market crashes occurred during the month of October, though, actually ends the similarities. That plus clueless Federal Reserve officials.Why the one [...]

Market vs Economy: A Time Mismatch

By |2020-05-18T17:23:53-04:00May 18th, 2020|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

“Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change.” Stephen Hawking   The economic news over the last month has been as awful as anyone alive has ever seen. Unemployment has risen from 3.5% to 14.7% since February with nearly 15 million Americans filing for jobless benefits in the last month alone. The CFNAI hit its third-worst reading ever and that [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 6: Shocking (to some) Fragility

By |2020-05-04T15:30:05-04:00May 4th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Google-cast: https://shorturl.at/fpsEJ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY   Alhambra-tube: below   SUMMARY  Hubris. It will get us to the stars but seduce us into believing we belong there. Today, monetary authorities suffer it, believing they can manage the nonlinearity, emergence, spontaneous order, adaptation and feedback loops of the unraveling. DESCRIPTION In 1929 a plague struck Florida resulting in an overwhelming government response. [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 5: Myths

By |2020-04-27T18:20:45-04:00April 27th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

CHANNELS: iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Google Podcasts: https://shorturl.at/fpsEJ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Emil-Tube: https://youtu.be/yqmVom5lq58 Alhambra-Tube: below   SUMMARY:  Ancient myths, like the Minotaur of Crete, Monkey King or Odin, are not taken seriously.  But modern myths, like the Greenspan Put, the Bank of Japan buying stocks or bond kings selling Treasuries, not only are taken seriously, but acted upon.   KEYWORDS: Eurodollar University, Jeff Snider, [...]

COT Black: No Love For Super-Secret Models

By |2020-04-27T18:13:03-04:00April 27th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

As I’ve said, it is a threefold failure of statistical models. The first being those which showed the economy was in good to great shape at the start of this thing. Widely used and even more widely cited, thanks to Jay Powell and his 2019 rate cuts plus “repo” operations the calculations suggested the system was robust.Because of this set [...]