Faced with a choice between changing one's mind and proving there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy with the proof. J.K. Galbraith I've learned so much from my mistakes, I'm thinking of making a few more. Anonymous I was prepared to dislike our new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh. His past track record at the Fed stood [...]
You can't take the same actions as everyone else and expect to outperform. In order to outperform, by definition, you have to depart from the crowd. You have to hold a different position. If your portfolio looks like everyone else's, you may do well, or you may do poorly, but you can't do different. And being different is absolutely essential [...]
It just goes to show ya. It's always something. If it's not one thing, it's another. - Roseanne Roseannadanna, played by Gilda Radner on SNL So, was that it? Is the AI boom over? It seems like just a month or so ago that any stock even vaguely associated with AI was going up on a daily basis. Nvidia was [...]
All About The AI? It's an AI stock world and all the other stocks are just living in it, right? That is the persistent narrative we've been hearing for at least a couple of years and while the story is starting to see some cracks, it is still widely believed. There is still an underlying whiff of FOMO surrounding the [...]
Can Tech Stocks Keep Outperforming? Technology stocks have been outperforming for a long time. That's how technology gets to be nearly 40% of the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000 and 60% of the NASDAQ 100. The concentration of the indexes in technology stocks is a function of how well they've performed and the performance has solid, fundamental roots. They [...]
Question everything. Learn something. Answer nothing. Euripides Investors live in a world of noise. Every day the financial media pumps out content designed to capture your attention. An economic report will generate multiple analyses, some bullish, some bearish, looking at identical data and arriving at opposite conclusions. Social media amplifies it all, creating a cacophony of competing memes, all designed [...]
Nicholas Mutton / A fork in the road The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed. - William Gibson, author of Neuromancer Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. - George Santayana, The Life of Reason We are in the midst of an unprecedented boom. A technological revolution that [...]
Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject [...]
So we’ve never had people in a more gambling mood than now. But that doesn’t mean that investing is terrible. It does mean that prices for an awful lot of things will look very silly. Warren Buffett, CNBC interview, 5/2/26 If you've been reading these weekly missives for any length of time, you know I've been ranting about gambling for [...]
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