Weekly Market Pulse: Fear Makes A Comeback

By |2022-01-23T19:45:47-05:00January 23rd, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Fear tends to manifest itself much more quickly than greed, so volatile markets tend to be on the downside. In up markets, volatility tends to gradually decline. Philip Roth Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. Warren Buffett The new year hasn't gotten off to a great start for growth stocks or any of [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: A Very Contrarian View

By |2022-01-18T08:11:22-05:00January 17th, 2022|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

What is the consensus about the economy today? Will 2022 growth be better or worse than 2021? Actually, that probably isn't the right question because the economy slowed significantly in the second half of 2021. The real question is whether growth will improve from that reduced pace. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker now has Q4 growth all the way down [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: On Second Thought…

By |2022-01-10T08:03:24-05:00January 9th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche   The new year got off to quite a bang last week. It was almost as if someone flipped a switch and investors/traders suddenly decided that all that stuff they believed last year was just so passe. Growth stocks? Nah, who wants [...]

Eurodollar University Episode 177, Part 1: Confirming Euro$ Inversion And Its Huge Signal

By |2021-12-15T12:46:48-05:00December 15th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

177.1 Eurodollar Warning Confirmed(?) by USA GER JPN & CHN———Ep 177.1 Summary———The Eurodollar futures curve inverted on December 1st - what's happened since? Also, does the American, German and Japanese sovereign bond market corroborate the Eurodollar futures warning? Lastly, does China's lowering of its bank Required Reserve Ratio buttress the E$ warning too? ———Ep 177.1 Topics——— 00:00 INTRO: Updating the [...]

Eurodollar University Episode 175, Part 3: Trick Question, Stock or Flow When It Comes to QE?

By |2021-12-10T19:57:47-05:00December 10th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

175.3 Trick Question: How Much QE Will Move the Bond Market———Ep 175.3 Summary———Since 2008 the pace of purchases, sales - and everything in between - has not affected the price of bond yields. Indeed, bond yields seem to go the opposite way of they're 'supposed' to act. But what about the stock of purchases? Is there a total, that once [...]

Eurodollar University Episode 175, Part 2: Euro$ Curve Inverts, So We Have To Talk *More* About It

By |2021-12-09T19:50:32-05:00December 9th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

175.2 RED ALERT: Eurodollar Futures Curve Inverts Pt. 2———Ep 175.2 Summary———When the US Treasury yield curve inverts it's a recession warning for the United States. What about when the Eurodollar futures curve inverts? That's a warning too; a monetary Red Alert for the entire world economy. On December 1st the Eurodollar curve inverted. Welcome to Hades. ———Ep 175.2 Topics——— 00:00 [...]

Eurodollar University Episode 175, Part 1: Euro$ Curve Inverts, So We Have To Talk About It

By |2021-12-08T16:11:05-05:00December 8th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

175.1 RED ALERT: Eurodollar Futures Curve Inverts Pt. 1  ———Ep 175.1 Summary———You've heard that when the US Treasury yield curve inverts it is a recession warning for the United States. What about when the Eurodollar futures curve inverts? That is a warning too. A monetary red alert for the entire world economy. On December 1st the Eurodollar curve inverted. ———Ep [...]

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