Stocks

Further The Zombie Bubble

By |2019-11-27T17:41:25-05:00November 27th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has revised its preliminary estimate of GDP. That can only mean one thing: time to look at corporate profits again. Included along with the recalculated headline output estimate is the BEA’s first run of profit figures. If you are Jay Powell, you aren’t going to like what you find. First, real GDP in the [...]

QE’s and Rate Cuts: Two Very Different Sets of Sentiment Drawn From Them

By |2019-11-13T11:10:52-05:00November 13th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Stocks|

The stock market’s dichotomy grows ever wider. On the one side, record high prices which are being set by the expectations of a trade deal plus renewed worldwide “stimulus.” Sure, officials everywhere were late to see the downturn coming, but they’ve since woken up and went to work. On the other side, though, there’s not nearly the same level confidence. [...]

Big Picture: Long-Term Trends In Markets

By |2019-09-26T17:13:38-04:00September 26th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The investment industry is always focused on the short-term, an attempt I think to justify fees through activity. A recent example is the breathless reporting about a short term shift toward value stocks. Value has underperformed for so long that everyone is hyper-focused on finding the inflection point so every wiggle in that direction is hailed as the turning point. [...]

Retail Math, Stock Sentiment

By |2019-09-13T15:42:53-04:00September 13th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

According to the Census Bureau, auto sales in the US may be on the upswing. Rising 6.8% year-over-year in August, it was the highest rate in nearly three years for retail sales of automobiles. This follows an upward revised 6.3% increase during July, the best back-to-back months in the beleaguered sector since the end of 2016. Are auto sales experiencing [...]

A Bigger Boat

By |2019-09-10T12:48:35-04:00September 10th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

For every action there is a reaction. Not only is that Sir Isaac Newton’s third law, it’s also a statement about human nature. Unlike physics where causes and effects are near simultaneous, there is a time component to how we interact. In official capacities, even more so. Bureaucratic inertia means a lot more than just resistance to change, it also [...]

GDP Profits Hold The Answers To All Questions

By |2019-08-29T20:58:05-04:00August 29th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Revisions to second quarter GDP were exceedingly small. The BEA reduced the estimate by a little less than $800 million out of nearly $20 trillion (seasonally-adjusted annual rate). The growth rate therefore declined from 2.03502% (continuously compounded annual rate) to 2.01824%. The release also gave us the first look at second quarter corporate profits. Like the headline GDP revisions, there [...]

Gifts of Wyoming, Complicating A Simple Story About Bears

By |2019-08-23T16:59:50-04:00August 23rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Curiously short on star power, the Jackson Hole gathering this year has already taken an odd turn. It’s been practically subversive. Usually when the Kansas City Fed gets together for these things each and every August, the main attraction is the top central bankers in the major economies. Outside of the Bank of England’s Mark Carney, this year there’s only [...]

Anesthesia Right On Schedule

By |2019-06-20T18:35:49-04:00June 20th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

In early January, much of the world was dazed and confused. What the hell just happened? Two weeks before, in the middle of December 2018, Jay Powell stood in front of the microphones confidently declaring his rate hikes justified by an extremely strong economy. Yet, even the stock market had turned against him. When the calendar changed to 2019, not [...]

More What’s Behind Yield Curve: Now Two Straight Negative Quarters For Corporate Profit

By |2019-05-30T16:10:18-04:00May 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) piled on more bad news to the otherwise pleasing GDP headline for the first quarter. In its first revision to the preliminary estimate, the government agency said output advanced just a little less than first thought. This wasn’t actually the substance of their message. Accompanying this first revision was the first set of estimates [...]

Chart (Deluge) Of The Month

By |2019-05-24T16:44:54-04:00May 24th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

In Europe, the ECB’s minutes for its April 2019 meeting claimed: Financial market developments, which were typically more forward looking, were more upbeat. In the US, the Federal Reserve’s minutes for its April 2019 meeting claimed: Participants noted that even if global economic and financial conditions continued to improve, a patient approach would likely remain warranted, especially in an environment [...]