The headline index ticked down .1 to 90.6. This is the 23rd consecutive month of sentiment below the 50 year average of 98. The index surveys members of the National Federation of Independent Businesses and reports net number. When asked if the economy will improve, a net 42% of members surveyed said No. If no one answers "I don't know," [...]
Headline CPI came in at 3.12% in November, that's .11% lower than October. From September to October the headline dropped .46%. For the year, we've averaged a monthly drop of .29%. So the pace of disinflation is slowing. Additionally, YOY changes in prices are still higher than June, so we've made no progress in the 2nd half of the year. [...]
Initial claims were up 1,000 to 220,000 and continue to not be a concern. Continuing claims on the week dropped below the 4-week moving average which was good to see. Challenger reported 45515 job cuts in November. That's up from 36,836 last month but down from 76,835 las November. To date in 2023, there have been 686,860 announced cuts. We [...]
The Nowcast for 4th quarter GDP is up .1% to 1.3% growth with the addition of this week's data. Auto sales and manufacturing orders were the main reports driving this slight uptick. The forecasts were raised for personal consumption expenditures as well as business equipment purchases. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an [...]
Private companies added 103,000 workers to payrolls in November. This disappointed as consensus was expecting 123,000 additions. Also, the October number was revised down by 7,000 jobs erasing some of the strength off September's 32 month low in hiring of 89,000. On an annual basis employment is growing 2.035% and continues to slow from the hiring surge of 2021 and [...]
Job openings has come down from an elevated level coming out of the pandemic. It has breached it's long term trend which may portend softness in the labor market. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the [...]
First and foremost, Durable goods peaked in the short term in June. A repeated theme, we saw some strength in Sep, October is again weak, expect November to be better given a really bad Nov 22. Aircraft orders are significant. The $16B drop in Durable Goods Orders is from a drop in non defense aircraft orders. The following 2 graphs [...]
After considering all the data this week, the GDPNow estimate is 1.2% growth. This is down from the initial estimate of 2.3% on Oct 27th and down from 2.1% at the end of last week. The big dial mover was today's ISM report. Specifically the report had negative repercussions for goods consumption, business equipment investment and goods exports. Rates have [...]
Global manufacturing is consolidating in slightly contractionary territory at 49.3 in November up from 48.8 last month and a 6th consecutive below 50. In addition to the composite, Output (49.9), New Orders (48.9), New Export Orders (48.1) and Employment (49.2) are all indicating slight contraction. But all ticked up from last month. Inflation is still present but edged lower. Input [...]
The ISM PMI came in unchanged in November at 46.7, the 13th consecutive month this series has indicated contraction in manufacturing. On a positive note, though current production dropped, new orders rose. Other data points of note: Export orders dropped (6 of 18 industries reporting growth) Backlogs dropped (no industry reported growth in backlogs) Prices are no longer going down [...]
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