After falling by nearly 7% year-over-year in July, the third worst drop since 2009, wholesale sales expanded by nearly 7% in August, the highest gain in almost two years. As with factory orders, however, there are seasonal effects to consider given these are unadjusted comparisons. Blended together, cumulatively wholesale sales for both July and August were down about 1%. Seasonally-adjusted, [...]
The September payroll report continues a string of repetitious unevenness that is the hallmark of these types of economic periods. The economy seems to appear strong then weak and then strong again so that just when “everyone” is ready to put the weakness behind, it disappoints all over again. It is a seemingly confusing condition made more so by especially [...]
On January 10, the South African rand crashed about 9% in just a matter of minutes. It was the largest move for the currency since October 2008, an ominous yet poignant sign of just how bad everything was globally at that time. CNY had been pummeled up until the PBOC acted but a few days before. Even though the world [...]
If I was forced to guess what it was that specifically set off this “something” of growing “dollar” illiquidity since July, I would have to go back to the July 28 and 29 BoJ policy meeting. Initially, that was the decision that so disappointed at least against the backdrop of expectations of maybe the “helicopter.” But while the mainstream saw [...]
If we objectively analyze what is taking place with global banks, it is that they are facing new constraints due to volatility and conditions across different capacities that are much different than modeled expectations. This was supposed to be the Hollywood ending but instead there is only “global turmoil.” This difference isn’t new; it has been ongoing at various speeds [...]
When Alan Greenspan raised rates more than a decade ago, he just commanded that they be raised and the markets dutifully obeyed. The myth was unchallenged that the Fed could, if it wished, flood the market with bank reserves to reduce rates or contrarily starve it of reserves to raise them. The events of 2007-09 were essentially direct defiance to [...]
Factory orders rose 1.1% year-over-year in August, the first increase since February. Like February, however, it isn’t clear if the gain is due to actual organic growth or seasonal factors. The seasonally-adjusted series for factory orders fell 1.6%, the difference likely attributed to July. Orders rose by a considerable amount in that month on a seasonally-adjusted basis even though unadjusted [...]
The “rising dollar” has been much less disruptive since February 11. In terms of the real economy, since “rising dollar” is a euphemism for “dollar” shortage we would expect trade and especially international trade to be most affected by it where “dollars” are the primary global currency. A pause in “dollar” disruption, at least outwardly as direct disorder, should allow [...]
When we talk about or estimate long run growth rates, we intend to encompass entire cycles. In other words, whatever the long run average of real GDP growth, for instance, it takes into account both recession and recovery to harmonize into what would be a constant trend or potential. From that view, we would expect that while growth would be [...]
Since rumors of a much lower DOJ settlement went viral last week, Deutsche Bank stock has rebounded. From a low of $11.48 last Friday, the stock was trading today above $13. This isn’t, of course, indicative of an end to all woes for the German bank, merely the latest is a long line of temporary reprieves. The problem for Deutsche [...]
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