Currencies

No Talk In The Dollar Shadows

By |2021-01-22T19:03:29-05:00January 22nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The company isn’t bankrupt, it just doesn’t have the right currency in its reach to repay debts coming due. YPF is Argentina’s (former) gold mine, in this case the black gold of energy exploitation. State-owned, the business has obviously close ties to the ruling powers-that-be and a privileged place to go along with them. Its formal name, Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales, [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 42; Part 2: The Other Side of TIPS

By |2021-01-22T16:50:02-05:00January 22nd, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

42.2 Real Yields Near Record Lows say Economy's AwfulReal yields recently hit RECORD lows. Yes, inflation is rising but is that due to the real economy expanding?  Real yields say, "No!". Real yields say, 'The real economy is AWFUL!' So what is driving inflation expectations higher? Fuel. Oil prices are up - but the economy isn't. [Emil’s Summary] A recent [...]

The Smallest Bit of Empathy For The Swollen Herd

By |2021-01-21T20:12:01-05:00January 21st, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why isn’t the inflation monster right upon us? Well, for one, central banks only pretend to do money. But setting that aside, it’s worth asking how even if they did do money, could inflation result given the current conditions? Hard no.It’s a combination of enormous macro slack joining destructive forces with the underside of the permanent income hypothesis. The point [...]

Future Stimulus Math

By |2021-01-20T19:23:52-05:00January 20th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Sticking with Europe, central bankers want and expect higher inflation because that would confirm an economy strong enough – and monetarily sufficed – to sustain success. It’s the sustainability which has been lacking; the global economy since the first global (euro)dollar shortage never able to do more than lurch between downturns and the absence of downturns (reflation).Without enough monetary oxygen [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 42; Part 1: Doubts Keep Blooming About This QE Business

By |2021-01-20T15:11:59-05:00January 20th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

42.1 WSJ Columnist asks Fed: 'What the...?' Wall Street Journal columnist Andy Kessler recently spoke with Jeff Snider about central banks and monetary policy. He ended a recent column with, "The least the Fed can do is get out of the way. End QE now". [Emil's Summary] A recent Hidden Forces podcast with Demetri Kofinas featured professor Kevin Vallier and [...]

When They Introduced An Even Longer Gov’t Bond

By |2021-01-19T20:09:38-05:00January 19th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If you tally up the amount of local government debt and add it to the total owed by Japan’s central government, at the close of fiscal year 1991 it wasn’t too bad. The Japanese had always been fiscally responsible especially when compared to any of that nation’s big economy peers. In those early days of the “lost decade”, the balance [...]

No Sharp Turns From China’s Potential

By |2021-01-19T17:31:41-05:00January 19th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Most people can be forgiven for suffering the misimpression. Some of it is intentional, as reflation – and those selling it – absolutely require a healthy Chinese contribution to reach their strong global rebound. As we’ve documented over the last decade, it almost doesn’t matter what numbers China’s economy actually puts forward, that system is always “strong.”The only time it [...]

Conventional Wisdom Is Nothing of The Sort

By |2021-01-19T11:31:10-05:00January 18th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

If you had known in October all that would transpire over the next 2 ½ months, how would you have positioned your portfolio? The conventional wisdom before the election was that a Biden win would be negative for stocks because he has promised to raise taxes and specifically corporate taxes. In 2016, conventional wisdom was that a Trump victory would [...]

If the Fed’s Not In Consumer Prices, Then How About Producer Prices?

By |2021-01-15T19:38:00-05:00January 15th, 2021|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not just that there isn’t much inflation evident in consumer prices. Rather, it’s a pretty big deal given the deluge of so much “money printing” this year, begun three-quarters of a year before, that consumer prices are increasing at some of the slowest rates in the data. Trillions in bank reserves, sure, but actual money can only be missing. [...]

Go to Top