Talking To Bill About Evergrande

By |2021-09-20T19:43:00-04:00September 20th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US Treasury auctioned off $45 billion in 3-month (13w) bills this morning. Despite the Federal Reserve paying 5 bps for SOMA UST collateralized, for “some” reason the primary market’s players wanted this issue far more. The auction’s high was just 3.5 bps, its median 2.5. These are down from 4 bps and 3.5 bps, respectively, last Monday. With the [...]

China’s Managed Decline Ain’t Ever To Be Grand(e), It’s (euro)Dollars

By |2021-09-20T18:44:53-04:00September 20th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Some wanted to call it China’s Bear Stearns, and over time it may end up being seen that way. And that would be the right way to see it. What Bear’s March 2008 demise had represented was the watershed event for the eurodollar system, the final straw which finally broke the camel’s back. In the same way, CNY's was broken [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Time For A Taper Tantrum?

By |2021-09-20T08:23:10-04:00September 19th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to say that it is talking about maybe reducing bond purchases sometime later this year or maybe next year or at least, someday. Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at which he'll tell us that markets have nothing to worry about because even if they taper QE, interest rates aren't [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 99, Part 3: When Everyone Understands Why The Dollar Goes Up, We Celebrate Our Show’s Demise

By |2021-09-17T19:49:17-04:00September 17th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

99.3 US Dollar Gains Value - Bad News for the World  ———Ep 99.3 Summary———In 1971, US Treasury Secretary John Connally told a group of European finance ministers that the US dollar "is our currency, but your problem." Half a century later, the problem has grown bigger encompassing the whole world. A world that is short of dollars. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra [...]

Dollar Warning Update From The Islands Which Started It

By |2021-09-17T18:12:03-04:00September 17th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The first seeds of the eventual eurodollar bloom, in domestic US terms, were sown all way back in sixteen – as in the year 1916. Believe it or not, the Federal Reserve Act, then only a few years old, had been modified so that banking syndicates (those able to raise the princely sum of $1 million capital) could form what [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 99, Part 2: Their Get Out of Deflation Free Card

By |2021-09-16T19:57:56-04:00September 16th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

99.2 LABOR SHORTAGE! A Fed 'Get out of Jail Free' card ———Ep 99.2 Summary———Labor shortages are normal, at the microscale, from time to time, in this or that industry. Yet since 2008, establishment economists use "labor shortage" as an excuse to: A) support a misleadingly low unemployment rate and, B) explain away the participation problem. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ [...]

August Retail Sales Surprise To The Upside, Because They Were Down?

By |2021-09-16T19:53:48-04:00September 16th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to the movie The Princess Bride, the worst classic blunder anyone can make is to get involved in a land war in Asia. No kidding. The second is something about Sicilians and death. There is also, I’ve come to learn, an unspoken third which cautions against chasing down and then trying to break down seasonal adjustments in economic data.Some [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 99, Part 1: What’s Really Killing The Economy’s Potential?

By |2021-09-15T20:00:07-04:00September 15th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

99.1 What's Killing Labor Force Participation in the USA?  ———Ep 99.1 Summary———'Maybe the economy isn't in as good a condition as you economists / academics / technocrats think it is,' says the labor force participation rate. 'The economy is in fantastic shape,' says the unemployment rate. Which one is correct? ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———Ep 99.1 [...]

First Transitory In Producers, Then More For Consumers, Now A Negative For Import Prices

By |2021-09-15T19:54:58-04:00September 15th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The American people were first introduced to the Treasury helicopter in 2008, not 2021. The Bush Administration's “radical” approach to keeping the Great “Recession” from becoming a contraction, obviously, failed spectacularly even though the initial returns had been positive – literally positive in how Q2 ’08 GDP suddenly turned higher as if this was by skilled design. Economists, including those [...]

China’s Actual Base Affects Inflation As Well As Prosperity

By |2021-09-15T17:23:39-04:00September 15th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Those pesky base effects. For most of the world’s economic data, these have contributed much to creating the misimpression the global economy is doing well, if not on fire. By comparing data now (or a month ago) to the same a year earlier, boy can it look splendid. In the stock business, they’re called easy comps.The Chinese, however, have just [...]

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