Like CNY in the afterglow of still another intervention, there are some things that you can easily forecast with good accuracy. This is no great insight on my part, of course, but two days ago I wrote: The media being what it is, this will very likely be the last time the data so diverges from the narrative. I have [...]
Talking with my colleague Joe Calhoun yesterday, he was eager to share with me something he found in the (virtual) pages of the Wall Street Journal, a perfect sign of the times. In a story about a group of nuns in Germany taking their financial future into their own hands, Joe couldn’t help but shake his head at what surely [...]
While certain markets continue to dream of the economy that might be, we continue to be stuck with the economy that continues to be nothing like it. Last week the Census Bureau reported that exports fell slightly year-over-year in September 2016 after rising slightly in August for the first positive number in two years. On the import side, marginal US [...]
Before October 1997, what would become known as the Asian flu was just another opportunity for the mainstream to dismiss what many people, including many prominent, competent people, had been warning about for years before. The usual refrain thrown back at them was some form of “you are missing out.” People, of course, never really learn from these episodes because [...]
After sticking around 53 bps since the middle of September, 1-month LIBOR has jumped almost 7 bps since November 11 to register above 60 bps for the first time in years. With the December 2016 FOMC meeting fast approaching, it is quite natural to assume eurodollar markets are picking up what has been “hawkishness” over recent weeks. This would be [...]
I think it necessary to qualify and clarify the conventional stance on the unemployment rate. In the mainstream, as noted yesterday, it has been something of an absolute. The lower it goes the more provocative the rhetoric on the positive side. After all, an economy at full employment cannot possibly be unhealthy, can it? That has been the great dividing [...]
Gross Domestic Product in the United States for the third quarter of 2016 was revised higher from the preliminary estimate of 2.86% to now 3.109%, which is to say there is once more no difference. That is true even in comparison to earlier this year where GDP was less than 1.5% in each of the three preceding quarters. It should [...]
Dating all the way back to February 11 and the Chinese turn on the “dollar”, the eurodollar futures curve had been stuck in a relatively narrow range. That trading band was widened a bit in June before and after Brexit (related to CNY’s regular mid-year drop), with futures on the whole curve bid up to early July and then slightly [...]
It’s easy to set aside the nostalgia, so to speak, since this is likely the last Christmas holiday season to be talked about in the media in the positively glowing terms of the unemployment rate. Ever since the “recovery” began, each and every year the internet and TV channels are filled with stories about how strong the consumer is and [...]
Part 1 is here. Part 2 is here. From the point of the Great Crash forward the interbank market mostly ceased to exist. Having first learned the hard way about money and liquidity, the federal funds market as well as the trend for recirculating borrowed reserves largely died out. Banks overall carried massive reserve balances far in excess of what [...]
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