Economy

Which One Really Belonged On Yellen’s Dashboard?

By |2018-01-10T17:19:32-05:00January 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The latest JOLTS survey from the BLS suggests nothing much has changed from that particular view of the labor market. The level of estimated Job Openings (JO) while down slightly over the last few months remains exceedingly high. By contrast, the rate of monthly Hires (HI) continues to be subdued, if at the high end of its recent range extending [...]

Two Potentially Important Notes For Consumer Credit

By |2018-01-08T18:50:03-05:00January 8th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As expected, the Federal Reserve reported today that consumer credit expanded by an unusually large amount in November. Non-revolving debt rose by $16.6 billion, which is only slightly more than the recent average, and less than the average flow three years ago. It was instead revolving consumer credit where balances expanded the most (+$11.2 billion). As noted last week, that [...]

The Conspicuous Rush To Import

By |2018-01-08T17:02:24-05:00January 8th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to the Census Bureau, US companies have been importing foreign goods at a relentless pace. In estimates released last week, seasonally-adjusted US imports jumped to $204 billion in November 2017. That’s a record high finally surpassing the $200 billion mark for the first time, as well as the peaks for both 2014 and 2007. While that may be encouraging [...]

What’s Missing In Europe Is What’s Missing Everywhere

By |2018-01-05T18:06:05-05:00January 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

American central bankers and economists aren’t alone in their Phillips Curve nightmare. They are joined by others practically everywhere else around the world. In Europe, for example, the unemployment rate there continues to fall while inflation keeps on misbehaving in its meandering. Unlike the US, however, the Europeans don’t have the luxury of burying millions of prospective workers in other [...]

The Reluctant Labor Force Is Reluctant For A Reason (and it’s not booming growth)

By |2018-01-05T17:13:10-05:00January 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In 2017, the BLS estimates that just 861k Americans were added to the official labor force, the denominator, of course, for the unemployment rate. That’s out of an increase of 1.4 million in the Civilian Non-Institutional Population, the overall prospective pool of workers. Both of those rises were about half the rate experienced in 2016. While population growth slowed last [...]

Payrolls Hit The Trifecta of Awful

By |2018-01-05T12:30:22-05:00January 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last year was an objectively bad year for American workers. The latest payroll figures from the BLS for December 2017 fill out what was an awful picture. According to its Establishment Survey, the data that’s taken as the definitive source on the US labor market, total payrolls expanded by 2.055 million in 2017. That annual increase isn’t being lamented, however, [...]

Big Difference Between Wanting To and Having To

By |2018-01-04T19:10:30-05:00January 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to the Federal Reserve, US consumers in October added a large $8.3 billion (SA) to their credit card balances. That was the third largest monthly increase since 2007. For some, that’s an indication of risk-taking and therefore recovery-like behavior on the part of American consumers. Given that it’s been this way for some time, revolving consumer credit balances started [...]

That’s Some ‘Sweet Spot’

By |2018-01-04T18:40:06-05:00January 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

December 2014 was something of a high-water mark. Early on in that month, the BLS had published payroll numbers (Establishment Survey) that to many confirmed the narrative. For the previous month, November, the US economy purportedly added a massive 321k new jobs. The media was predictably uncontrolled in its glee. Any survey of mainstream headlines for that particular report contains [...]

The Great Risk of So Many Dinosaurs

By |2018-01-03T16:19:30-05:00January 3rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) was established a long time ago in the maelstrom of World War II budgetary as well as wartime conflagration. That made sense. To fight all over the world, the government required creative help in figuring out how to sell an amount of bonds it hadn’t needed (in proportional terms) since the Civil War. A [...]

The Anti-Reflation Story Is The One That Mattered, And The Treasury Market Isn’t The Only One Telling It

By |2018-01-03T12:38:39-05:00January 3rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Treasury market isn’t the only place where the idea of “globally synchronized growth” is proving a tough sell. The collapse of the yield curve suggests, in fact, it isn’t being bought one bit. Apart from bonds, US companies aren’t warming to the economic warming, either. The labor market apart from the unemployment rate remains suspiciously subdued. According to the [...]

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