The February payroll estimate for the Establishment Survey was 242,000 with upward revisions to December and January, so we are told the labor market is surging once more. Last month when the Establishment Survey suggested “only” 151,000 (before revisions) it was taken as disappointing even though there is statistically no difference between 151k and 242k (a 90% confidence interval leaves [...]
During the global end of the Great Recession, Brazilian GDP contracted year-over-year in just three quarters. The worst was about -2.5% in Q1 2009, but by Q1 2010 GDP was rising 9% again. With the latest update today, Brazil’s GDP declined by just less than 6% year-over-year in Q4, representing the seventh consecutive contraction that doesn’t look to be ending [...]
The ISM Non-manufacturing PMI disappointed in February, falling to 53.4 overall. As with all PMI’s, the number isn’t so important as the trend. This index PMI had stood at 60 during the August turmoil (July reading) and still 59 as late as the update for October. From that economists assumed the manufacturing recession would somehow be isolated from everything else; [...]
There can be no doubt as to the manufacturing recession in the US, a direct reflection of US consumers. In a fitting confirmation of Chinese manufacturing, US factory orders declined for the 15th consecutive month in January 2016. The year-over-year decline was 3.3%, only slightly better than the revised 4.2% in December, but the length of this continuous decline means [...]
When the unemployment rate tumbled toward 5% and now below it, economists thought that was overheating. For monetary policy, that was much of the basis for adjusting Fed communication (not rate hikes, as credit and funding markets are doing the opposite). Despite the “best jobs market in decades”, however, confirmation of that robust labor agenda is scarce at best and [...]
As I often write, in Japan it is far more difficult to hide the failure of “stimulus.” There are varying degrees of visibility in that regard around the QE world, but they all share negative redistribution as the base alloy. That’s why Janet Yellen may be merely uncomfortable and Mario Draghi increasingly brooding, but Haruhiko Kuroda was just pushed to [...]
JP Morgan reported late last month that its total exposure to oil & gas credit (directly on its books, I would assume) is $44 billion, or which $19 billion is currently rated junk. There was no update as to junk or junk-like corporates beyond energy, which in the end might be the more pressing concern. The old joke is that [...]
Barclays has received all the media attention in the past few days after announcing its exit from Africa. Specifically, the bank intends to divest enough of its 62% stake in the Africa unit so as to skirt tougher UK regulations intended to “ringfence” domestic operations; to keep the global bank from potential global financial horrors recurring and devastating once more [...]
The ISM Manufacturing Index was reported at 49.5 for February 2016, up from 48.2 in January. It was the second consecutive rise for the overall index, December being the lowest, so the “it’s all over” narrative has been flying around heavily today. Lost in the relief is that February was the fifth consecutive month below 50 (and sixth straight at [...]
China’s official manufacturing PMI slipped to just 49 in February, the worst monthly level since February 2009. It has been below 50 each of the past seven months (and increasingly so during that time) and less than 50.3 since November 2014, an incredible span of 15 straight months. The trend is inarguable, as even economists will now admit Chinese industry [...]
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