The rebound in commodity prices is not difficult to understand, perhaps even sympathize with. With everything so depressed early last year, if it turned out to be no big deal in the end then there was a killing to be made. That’s what markets are supposed to do, entice those with liquidity to buy when there is blood in the [...]
Chinese economic data for April 2017 has been uniformly disappointing. External trade numbers resembled too much commodity prices, leaving an emphasis on them rather than actual economic forces. The latest figures for the Big 3, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Fixed Asset Investment, unfortunately also remained true to the pattern. Industrial Production had seemingly accelerated in March, rising to a [...]
The average annual change in the WTI benchmark price was in April about 25%. That was still a sizable increase year-over-year, and just marginally less than March’s average of 33%. For calculated inflation rates, it represents the last of the base effects that have to this point made it appear as if economic improvement was possibly serious. Combined with the [...]
Retail sales estimates are not adjusted for inflation, but even so whenever they get down toward the 3% growth level you can be sure there is serious economic trouble. The 6-month average for overall retail sales dropped below 3% in March 2001, the month that marked the start of the official dot-com recession (though that is not the official name [...]
It certainly does feel like 2014 all over again, at least in terms of sentiment and the air of a carefree attitude. There are dramatic differences, of course, but with regard to emotion there truly doesn’t seem to be much daylight between now and three years ago. All that was left to cap the comparison was for Greece to take [...]
The stock market has its earnings season, the regular quarterly reports of all the companies that have publicly traded stocks. In economic accounts, there is something similar though it only happens once a year. It is benchmark revision season, and it has been brought to a few important accounts already. Given that this is a backward looking exercise, that this [...]
We can add China to the list of locations where the near euphoria about inflation rates is rapidly falling apart. This is an important blow, as the Chinese economy has been counted on to lead the world out of this slump if through nothing other than its own sheer recklessness. “Stimulus” was all the rage one year ago, and for [...]
It is one of those things that will never be stated outright, nor does there exist the kind of unassailable proof that would convict in any legal sense. Regardless, monetary officials here and elsewhere are clearly trying to have it both ways. They know very well what is driving inflation rates upward of late, and it isn’t monetary policy success. [...]
Consistent with the LMCI, the JOLTS data series suggests very little has changed. There are two crossover points between them, where the level of Hires and the Quits Rate (a calculation derived from the JOLTS estimates) are included as two of the 19 factors in the LMCI. Though the latter was revised somewhat higher over the past few months, it [...]
Wholesale sales were up 8.3% in March 2017 unadjusted year-over-year. Like other accounts, however, the seasonally adjusted series was not impressed. On an adjusted basis, sales were flat month-over-month, just $50 million more in March than February. It isn’t clear what the problem might be, as the only calendar aberration is Easter that fell in March 2016 but not March [...]
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