chicago business barometer

Chicago Really, Really Didn’t Cooperate

By |2015-02-27T16:35:47-05:00February 27th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The last time I commented on the Chicago Business Barometer (formerly the Chicago PMI) it was over a one-month drop that was quickly erased. That violated a personal rule whereby I make every effort to ignore sentiment surveys as they both do not mean what they are taken for and are usually of dubious value. The reason I commented then [...]

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Chicago PMI and Marginal Growth

By |2014-07-31T10:54:43-04:00July 31st, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I normally do everything I can to avoid sentiment surveys, like the Chicago PMI (the Chicago Business Barometer to be specific), because they really are misleading without exact context. However, any large move like the one in July should bring at least some interest since outlier events are often the most informative. What may be important is not necessarily the [...]

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