Durable goods continue to suggest a weak economy that only seems to remain in that state. Year-over-year, unadjusted estimates for new orders rose slightly for the first time since May, while seasonally adjusted total orders (including the transportation sector) were fractionally lower at $226.9 billion. That amount was 2% less than January 2016 and 4.3% below August 2014. Once again [...]
It follows that if we find production dropping into a two-year slump, sales are likely the cause. Retail sales continue to be just as stuck as the rest of the economy, an economic limbo between growth and recession with far more of recession than growth. After suffering one of the worst months in July, retail sales bounced back in August [...]
Industrial production in the United States fell by 1.1% year-over-year in August, a slightly larger decline than the -0.6% estimated for each of the two months prior. August’s negative was the twelfth consecutive, marking a full year in slow but unusually persistent contraction at such a slope. The seasonally-adjusted peak was reached in November 2014, meaning that for almost two [...]
Factory orders rose in July in seasonally-adjusted terms from a downward revised June level. As has been the case with a number of economic data points this summer, that was a drastically different result than the unadjusted comparison. Since only the narrowest monthly interpretation makes it into most commentary about the economy, let alone manufacturing, the headlines leave a lot [...]
The Federal Reserve’s Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) fell to contraction again in August. After rebounding in July for the first positive reading of 2016, the LMCI dropped to -0.7 in the latest update. As usual, revisions have reshaped the levels of indicated problems throughout the past two years, but overall the trend remains. From this view of the labor [...]
Just a little over a year ago, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its purchasing manager index for the services sector for August 2015. Though the level was down slightly from July, coming amidst the immediate aftermath of the “shocking” financial quakes starting in China and spreading to markets all over the world, the 59.0 non-manufacturing PMI was welcome [...]
If the labor market were slowing as the wider perspective of the payroll reports suggest, then it would make sense to find increasing difficulties even among the few bright spots in this otherwise anemic economy. Yesterday and earlier it was reported increasing signs of slowing in real estate, both construction and resales of homes (particularly dwindling inventory). In the past [...]
Total construction spending was essentially flat year-over-year in July 2016. Public construction at both the state and local and also the federal government levels declined more than 3% Y/Y. Excluding the public sector, private construction spending (NSA) was up just 3.9% in July for the second month in a row. That was the lowest increase since the housing rebound started [...]
For October 2014, the ISM estimated that its Chicago Business Barometer was a blistering 66.2. Encompassing much of the Midwest and a good deal of auto and parts production, that level seemed to make sense. As any economist would say then, the US economy was on the verge of a breakout and according to the labor statistics maybe even one [...]
The massive wildfires in Alberta earlier this year had a tremendously negative effect upon not just the oil sector but all of Canada. Not surprisingly, Canadian GDP released today was abysmal. Falling 1.6% in Q2, that was the worst quarter since 2009. Fortunately for the Bank of Canada who had been “stimulating” again since last July when it cut the [...]
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