consumer spending

Consumers Simply Never Showed Up

By |2014-11-14T15:22:36-05:00November 14th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The largest calendar segments of the retail universe are back-to-school followed closely by Christmas. The peak month for back-to-school is August which is usually the third or fourth biggest month of the year in terms of raw retail sales; with October right behind as Christmas retailing ramps up. September, which falls in between back-to-school and Christmas (at least historically), was [...]

Spending and Income, Inseparable Except by Bubble

By |2014-11-03T17:16:56-05:00November 3rd, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It should not have come as a surprise to convention that the PCE component of GDP was not going to be leading economic gains. The monthly PCE series has been “better” in later 2014 than the winter, but that is far too narrow a context in which to draw any conclusions. No matter how you measure, American consumers continue to [...]

Beneath The Noise

By |2014-10-30T12:34:48-04:00October 30th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Most of what accounts for GDP is nothing but noise, leaving only a few major indications about what the economy is doing (or not doing). Prior to 2008, that wasn’t much of a problem as GDP by and large seemed to correlate well with other estimations of economic progress, and even our own intuitive perceptions. If you go back historically, [...]

Durable Goods Cycles

By |2014-10-28T12:36:54-04:00October 28th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The unfortunately established narrative for all economic accounts in 2014 relates (still) to depressing winter earlier in the year and “better” from there. At first glance, the latest figures on durable goods seem to be following that idea, though a “rough patch” has perhaps developed over the past two months. A wider context, however, is really needed as the pattern [...]

Significant Stagnation in Surveys

By |2014-10-21T15:48:00-04:00October 21st, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

To add another point to my earlier post on price changes and spending/revenue patterns, Gallup’s various economic polls show what I think are exactly the same problems. In the daily spending poll, the amount of self-reported spending has not really grown going all the way back to February 2013. Twenty months of largely stagnation is worse than it sounds given [...]

Less Than Burgers

By |2014-10-21T15:28:55-04:00October 21st, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With all of the credit market fireworks that leaked into stocks, the pace of economic reassurance from “authorities” has been rather steady and a bit more emphatic. Despite the attempts at managing perceptions, there has been very little actual success in persuading. In many ways this is like the unfolding ebola drama in that there is a palpable disconnect between [...]

No Wages, No Spending Despite ‘Pump Priming’ Autos

By |2014-10-15T13:06:31-04:00October 15th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The orthodox notion of monetary policy, following its Keynesian root, is that spending for the sake of spending will lead to a healthy economy. It does not matter, to this philosophy, how or why that spending takes place; only that it does. If, for example, the Federal Reserve can “stimulate” the interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy, like automobiles, [...]

Inflation and Devaluation Are But Temporary ‘Highs’

By |2014-10-08T21:39:28-04:00October 7th, 2014|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The reason I spend so much time on Japan is that it is the purest “laboratory” conditions available in which to determine, hopefully for all time, the (un)viability of monetarism.  The orthodox monetary practitioners that unleashed the yen torrent were not last year equivocating in their predictions and forecasts.  Abenomics and QQE would work without fail, they said; the only [...]

Doomed to Repeat

By |2014-10-07T15:08:19-04:00October 7th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’m not too sure about the relationship between skipping dental appointments and the tendency of markets to crash, but in terms of gaining some anecdotal insight into economic function and consistency there may be some value in tracking something like that. As I noted on a couple prior occasions, the movie business, for example, has spun a horrendous 2014 starting [...]

TNT Attrition

By |2014-09-24T15:41:29-04:00September 24th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There was a bit of a stir caused by Dutch logistics firm, TNT Express. The company has been expressing caution, if not downright pessimism about its prospects due to economic considerations. Today, it lowered its targets for growth, with the stock taking a beating in so doing. However, it is the manner of that downgrade that should be seriously considered, [...]

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