Ever since the ISM Manufacturing Index jumped in July (after having fell below 50 in May), commentary has centered on the idea of this particular index being emblematic of the wider economy. It is largely common knowledge that a reading above 50 is supposed to denote “expansion” in manufacturing, but what does 56.4 tell us about the economy? In short, [...]
The NBER considers employment and incomes as the two primary indications of economic cycles. Contrary to conventional thought, a recession is never defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. In issuing its November 2001 declaration for a cycle peak dated to March 2001, for example, the NBER said, “A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the [...]
The JOLTS survey this week showed pretty much the same bleak employment environment as we have seen throughout 2013. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the rate of new job openings declined significantly from July (-180k), and now stands at a level first reached in March 2012. If job openings are at all indicative of corporate labor appetite, then there really [...]
The employment report, as it always does, captured the most attention, but it was the wholesale inventory/sales report that deserved the widest audience. There will be plenty to say about the real employment situation currently (I will have a subsequent post devoted to earned income and job bean counting), but any discussion of jobs has to start with a broader [...]
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