With the lunacy of “payroll Friday” on full display, it isn’t much of a surprise to get overwhelmed by commentary that totally upends what investing used to be. There once was a mythical relationship that spanned and nurtured between stocks and the real economy. The former was representative about what to expect in the latter, and the latter benefited from [...]
To add depth to the consumer credit version of consumer inclinations in 2015, Gallup’s estimates of daily spending in March came in at $86. That was only $4 greater than February’s $82 which hadn’t rebounded at all from January. In other words, there is “something” wrong with consumers so far in 2015, even as compared to prior years of lethargy. [...]
A stumble even in the Establishment Survey is not at all unexpected even in the best of times (in reality as opposed to purely statistical assumptions), however the furor unleashed over the March “weakness” is everything you need to know about how much surety rests within the estimate to begin with. Like human psychology, anyone who possesses a high degree [...]
There isn’t a whole lot to say about the payroll report this month, as there hasn’t been much that is different. The Establishment Survey continues to dazzle, while the Household Survey lags (factoring the monthly volatility) and the labor force itself undercounts with the exception of what looks suspiciously like a discontinuity for January (when the labor force jumped by [...]
The US currency is strengthening in conjunction with the a strengthening US economy (proxied here by employment growth and surveys of businesses on hiring intentions and growth prospects). The last time we had this environment was in the 90's. The combination of increased spending power accompanied by job growth could result in an empowered US consumer. We have seen personal consumption [...]
Today’s employment release has been described, in numerous places, as “perfect.” I am hard-pressed to disagree, as the report itself contained absolutely everything an economist would want to show payroll strength (economic strength is another matter entirely). The Establishment Survey itself was overshadowed, though satisfying, by the Household Survey and especially a jump in the labor force. By the numbers: [...]
With all the election post-mortems flying about, there really only needs to be reference to pre-mortems that predicted such results. Even typically leftist media outlets have seen the “message” for what it was. From The DailyBeast: Yes, the stock market is booming but overwhelmingly Americans are unhappy with their economic situation—and for good reason. Wages are stagnant and middle-class household [...]
The latest August figures for the JOLTS companion to the payroll climate continue to raise the possibility of statistical corruptions. Back in June, the level of job openings suddenly and very sharply spiked upward. That was used as confirmation of the ongoing surge in employment, but without attribution as to how closely job openings relate to payroll indications through the [...]
With an election looming it is no surprise that efforts to sway voters via economic framing have been heightened. There are, however, the usual and predictable responses, and then there is what can only be called epic trolling (as the kids say). Publishing in Forbes, of all places, Adam Hartung quotes somebody named Bob Deitrick: President Obama has achieved a [...]
If you limited yourself to only the official unemployment rate the picture you get of the economy is seemingly one that fits very much inside historical expectations. The rate rose and fell just like it “should” in a recession/recovery cycle. That raises the question about why this period has been so divergent with past expectations. When even the Federal Reserve [...]
Stay In Touch