There is no accounting for revisions because by the time anyone remembers it was too late. The same is true for monthly variations that can easily become swallowed by overarching trends unconcerned with such small time periods. All of that means we shall repeat, over and over, the same incessant dichotomy whereby everything looks bad and even recessionary but the [...]
Written Tuesday Oct 27 Even though oil production inside the United States has declined over the summer, it’s as if oil supply is all that continues to matter. With oil prices down significantly today, as well as since mid-October, the incessant appeal of oil supply blooms yet further even though there is so much more than that to take into [...]
It may be unexpected to economists, but the sudden and uniform economic downside that is either appearing or strengthening almost everywhere in the world is closely tracking the wholesale “dollar.” In many cases, that flows through China and so is given that gloss, but there can be little doubt now about either cause or effect. In Japan, machine orders (a [...]
Even before the payroll report was issued, there was already an effort underway to downplay any negative potential. Global markets have been upset and in turmoil, but the US consumer and the consumer economy are supposedly undeterred by all that. So any weakness in September, as August, is being suggested as “residual seasonality.” This view was amplified by a Bloomberg [...]
Durable goods continue to contract, with August down year-over-year in both shipments and orders now. New orders have been contracting since February (with January barely positive) at an almost steady rate near -3% the last few months, while shipments did not see a negative rate until May (and were slightly positive again in June). In capital goods, the pattern is [...]
Top News Headlines Migrant crisis grips Europe. China finds a way to stop market from falling; trading suspended for parade. US stocks resume slide, down 3.4% for the week. ECB contemplates new round of QE. Markets shrug. Economic News Mixed employment report confuses rate hike calculus. Manufacturing still weak. Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed survey, ISM manufacturing all less than expected. [...]
There are only two numbers in the monthly payroll report that have any meaning, and both came up quite short yet again. The first, as always, is the labor force itself as that population estimate more than any other indicates the relative station of the US economy. There has never been any time in recorded economic history where economic growth [...]
If last month was another perfect payroll month, June was at least its opposite. While the Establishment Survey advanced by more than 200k yet again, the average monthly gains has dipped significantly of late (more on that below). Outside of that, however, it was ugly everywhere. All the upward volatility in the rest of the data points from May were [...]
It makes a very interesting contrast, to start the week under cloud of suspicion only to end it with its reverse. Economic data was routinely awful earlier, though for the most part financial markets are moved more by how that might make Janet Yellen feel than anything of a fundamental basis for all those prices. Typically, the ISM surveys are [...]
If there were an economic recovery in the US then we would certainly find it on the fiscal budgets of the various states. You cannot spend or even generate income anymore without taking incidence of a taxable transaction. So if the US economy has been doing what the FOMC says it has, then the taxman will tell us. Even here [...]
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