The Gallup Daily US Employment poll has seen a sharp rise in respondents indicating employment difficulties in the past month or so. The unemployment rate jumped as high as 8.9% on August 20, before settling back down. But it still remains well-above not just the BLS estimations, but levels from earlier in the year and in 2012. The Gallup data [...]
The curious case of the jobs survey dichotomy continues. While the mainstream focus on the Establishment Survey’s “steady growth” trend provides cover for the FOMC to contemplate scaling back their interventions (and thus the frothy/bubbly foundation), it is fully alone in its interpretation of the jobs situation. The Household Survey has diverged both in quantity and, more importantly, quality. Now [...]
The fact that companies coming out of the Great Recession have been running lean in terms of labor costs cuts both ways. It is a negative factor for employment growth since businesses have been very reluctant to add to staff levels without sustained revenue growth (which never materialized outside of currency translations). However, it also meant that those lucky, official [...]
The FOMC met last week and nothing happened. Oh, there was some slight adjustment to the wording of the statement released after the meeting, but really nothing of substance was decided. The biggest change, that had all of Wall Street calling up their old English professors, was a change in the way the Fed characterized the current state of the [...]
There was not much unexpected in the factory order data, in fact it was right in line with what we have seen for nearly a year. Orders ticked up slightly, but not outside of expected volatility. The six-month average of Y/Y growth in shipments ex transportation was stuck for a second straight month at close to zero; and fell 0.4% [...]
The discrepancy I highlighted in last month’s jobs report (June) closed a bit in July as the Household Survey reported growth at a higher rate than the Establishment Survey (+227k vs. +162k). On the other side of the BLS ledger, the same charade continued with the official labor force falling by 37k. Those “not in the labor force” increased by [...]
Seasonal adjustments have legitimate use only when there is a recognizable and relatively unbroken patterning in a data series. But most statistical agencies and their collection methods do not or cannot process structural changes. They adjust their benchmarks via the calendar, regardless of what happens in the intervening years. That presents a large problem for seasonal adjustments and statistical estimates [...]
In Part 1, I noted the more relevant link between the trade economy and economic performance overall, particularly in contrast to the growing dichotomy in the employment segment or jobs market. The Establishment Survey appears to be showing “strength” (at a reduced standard for what constitutes jobs recovery) at odds with other surveys and certainly with these additional economic data [...]
The explicit link between QE and the unemployment rate is supposed to be a rough proxy for the domestic economy’s response to repeated monetary prodding. The question is “how rough” a proxy. The official unemployment rate, as noted before, might have served some use prior to the bubble days, but of the economy as it exists in post-2008 there is [...]
Chairman Bernanke stole the show yesterday, certainly by his accommodative and now contradictory stand. I suppose that is the danger in trying to talk “markets” toward “targets”, much like Greenspan in the late 1990’s. Toward that end, he made at least one prediction that will likely come true (in sharp contrast to the Fed’s history), namely that the unemployment rate [...]
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