Joseph Y. Calhoun III

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So far Joseph Y. Calhoun III has created 2051 blog entries.

Big Picture: Long-Term Trends In Markets

By |2019-09-26T17:13:38-04:00September 26th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The investment industry is always focused on the short-term, an attempt I think to justify fees through activity. A recent example is the breathless reporting about a short term shift toward value stocks. Value has underperformed for so long that everyone is hyper-focused on finding the inflection point so every wiggle in that direction is hailed as the turning point. [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Market Indicators Review

By |2019-10-23T15:08:22-04:00August 29th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets|

This is a companion piece to last week's Monthly Macro report found here. The Treasury market continues to price in lower nominal and real growth. The stress, the urgency, I see in some of these markets is certainly concerning and consistent with what we have seen in the past at the onset of recession. The move in Treasuries is by [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Does Anyone Not Know About The Yield Curve?

By |2019-10-23T15:08:22-04:00August 21st, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Markets|

The yield curve's inverted! The yield curve's inverted! That was the news I awoke to last Wednesday on CNBC as the 10 year Treasury note yield dipped below the 2 year yield for the first time since 2007. That's the sign everyone has been waiting for, the definitive recession signal that says get out while the getting is good. And [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Market Indicators Review

By |2019-10-23T15:08:23-04:00July 19th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

The markets we use to monitor the economy (and those that influence it, which amounts to the same thing) have been tracking an economic slowdown since the 4th quarter of last year. That's when interest rates, real and nominal, long term and short term, started to decline, credit spreads started to widen and the copper to gold ratio started to [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: The Tempest

By |2019-10-23T15:08:26-04:00May 13th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

The Trump administration raised tariffs last week from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and are considering tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods. The Chinese retaliated this morning, raising tariffs to 25% from 5% and 10% on various goods totaling $60 billion. Obviously, the trade negotiations are not going well. Stock markets around the [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Well Worried

By |2019-10-23T15:08:28-04:00March 26th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

Don't waste your time worrying about things that are well worried. Well worried. One of the best turns of phrase I've ever heard in this business that has more than its fair share of adages and idioms. It is also one of the first - and best - lessons I learned from my original mentor in this business. The things [...]