Joseph Y. Calhoun III

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So far Joseph Y. Calhoun III has created 2055 blog entries.

A Marathon, Not A Sprint

By |2020-03-30T09:20:12-04:00March 30th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Financial Planning, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Stocks rose last week, a breathtaking, nearly 20% run off the recent lows before a pullback Friday trimmed the gain for the week to about 11%. That was certainly helpful but investors would be well-advised not to get too excited. This is what bear market rallies look like. They come out of nowhere, they run much further than anyone thinks [...]

Regime Change

By |2020-03-23T08:06:50-04:00March 23rd, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Special Reports, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Stocks took another beating last week as the scope of the coronavirus shutdown started to sink in. The S&P 500 was down 15% last week with most of that coming on Monday after the Fed’s emergency rate cuts. Our accounts performed much better than that, but were still down on the week as corporate and municipal bonds continued to get [...]

A Week We’ll Never Forget

By |2020-03-16T07:02:39-04:00March 16th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Financial Planning, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Last week was one of the worst weeks in the history of the US stock market. Thursday’s plunge was the worst one-day loss other than the crash of 1987. Friday’s recovery was stunning as well but big rallies are typical of bear markets and that is, unfortunately, where we now find ourselves. Obviously, the selling was about the coronavirus and [...]

Is this the Beginning of a Recession?

By |2020-03-10T10:40:57-04:00March 10th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Financial Planning, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

As I sit here Monday evening with the Dow having closed down 2000 points and the 10-year Treasury yield around 0.5%, the title of this update seems utterly ridiculous. With the new coronavirus still spreading and a collapse in oil prices threatening the entire shale oil industry, recession is now the expected outcome. Most observers seem to question only the [...]

Big Picture: Long-Term Trends In Markets

By |2019-09-26T17:13:38-04:00September 26th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The investment industry is always focused on the short-term, an attempt I think to justify fees through activity. A recent example is the breathless reporting about a short term shift toward value stocks. Value has underperformed for so long that everyone is hyper-focused on finding the inflection point so every wiggle in that direction is hailed as the turning point. [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Market Indicators Review

By |2019-10-23T15:08:22-04:00August 29th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets|

This is a companion piece to last week's Monthly Macro report found here. The Treasury market continues to price in lower nominal and real growth. The stress, the urgency, I see in some of these markets is certainly concerning and consistent with what we have seen in the past at the onset of recession. The move in Treasuries is by [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Does Anyone Not Know About The Yield Curve?

By |2019-10-23T15:08:22-04:00August 21st, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Markets|

The yield curve's inverted! The yield curve's inverted! That was the news I awoke to last Wednesday on CNBC as the 10 year Treasury note yield dipped below the 2 year yield for the first time since 2007. That's the sign everyone has been waiting for, the definitive recession signal that says get out while the getting is good. And [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Market Indicators Review

By |2019-10-23T15:08:23-04:00July 19th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

The markets we use to monitor the economy (and those that influence it, which amounts to the same thing) have been tracking an economic slowdown since the 4th quarter of last year. That's when interest rates, real and nominal, long term and short term, started to decline, credit spreads started to widen and the copper to gold ratio started to [...]