In case you need any assistance in trying to figure out when Janet Yellen spoke, or at least when the text of her speech was released from embargo, here is a hint: It seems her stream of consciousness was somewhat consistent with the old Greenspan idea of “fedspeak.” People and investors appear to have taken from it what they wished, [...]
As I have written many, many times, the “unexpected” events of January and February were a dramatic wake-up call for central banks. Last August’s global liquidation they could at least try to ignore because it could possibly fit within the paradigm of “transitory”, a one-off aberration that was some mysterious Chinese viral contagion and thus of not any great, lingering [...]
It wasn’t the introduction of statistics that led to the dire state of “science”, rather it was the jettison of common sense in favor of, and the total deference to, statistics. This was not a single event or a clean break, of course, as it happened slowly over decades. But in the 21st century what is often talked about and [...]
Going back to Japan for a third time today (it is more than deserved), at least in the setup, the Financial Times on August 1 astutely picked up what the rest of the mainstream media missed about the last BoJ policy moves. They correctly judged the “dollar” intentions, but also that it wasn’t nearly enough, as I wrote earlier. However, nobody [...]
On March 9, 2016, front month trading for Japanese government bond (JGB) futures was halted at 12:32 pm Tokyo time. Selling had become intense, tripping the Osaka Exchange’s dynamic circuit breaker. The total length of the halt was just 30 seconds, but fingers were already being pointed in the direction of the BoJ. More than four months later, on July [...]
Jeffrey Snider: All Signs Point to Global Systemic Reset
In the late 1990’s, economists attempted to get reacquainted with something that they previously believed was an artifact of long ago history. The plight of Japan during that decade had revived fears of deflation and depression. Some economists, those daring enough to challenge entrenched notions, began even to contemplate whether or not it could happen here. Writing in the New [...]
One of the primary points of emphasis with regard to Japan’s QQE was the yen itself. Pushing the value down, even by misconceptions about what central banks do, was supposed to simultaneously increase inflation pressures via the currency translation while also stimulating the export sector to a sufficient degree that Japan Inc. would be reborn and share the nominal gains [...]
In February 2013, Federal Reserve Board Governor Jeremy Stein gave a speech at a research symposium produced by the St. Louis branch of the Federal Reserve that shocked quite a lot of people. QE3 and QE4 were still quite new, but here was a Board member talking just months after their start of “reach for yield.” His assessment of risks [...]
China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reported a slight decline, -$3.6 billion, in foreign “reserve” assets in July. That followed a $13 billion “inflow” in June, which was the largest since early last year, maintaining the same pattern that we have observed for some time. A positive month isn’t so much an “inflow” as very likely forward operations from [...]
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