It is nearly impossible to spot recession and economic weakness in real time through economic accounts alone. Because of the way economic estimates are gathered and, more importantly, calculated, they will always be “behind the curve” of economic trends as they shift from one state to the next. In other words, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, much like the NBER, [...]
Given the weak state of the economy and its relation to so much monetary “stimulus”, it is still amazing that the standards for positive economic performance or momentum have been so drastically reduced. The durable goods report is a perfect example. There is no doubt that some manufacturing activity has ticked up after the disastrous months of February and March. [...]
If there has been one consistent source of strength in the US economy it has been automobile manufacturing and sales. However, even that is a bit of a misdirection since the growth in autos since 2009 owe mostly to the depth of contraction in the Great Recession. What looks like rapid growth is really a delayed attempt at returning to [...]
Through January 31, about 54% of companies had reported and digested earnings announcements. Current estimates for operating earnings have been trimmed all the way back to $23.83 for S&P 500 companies, representing a year-over-year change of 0.42%. However, given the lack of momentum and the number of companies that have lowered and preannounced lower, Q4 is likely to see a [...]
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