It is absolutely clear that the eurodollar system last functioned on August 8, 2007. Starting August 9, nothing would ever be the same. In describing and detailing how it got that way (the sudden fragmentation between “dollars” in NYC and London, for example) there is a natural tendency to compartmentalize even realizing the drastic implications of what it all meant. [...]
Throughout 2014 and even into 2015, the word “decoupling” was resurrected to try to calm growing unease about the direction of global growth. It’s first broad usage was during the first part of the Great Recession, as economists were sure that emerging markets then would be able to weather the “slowdown” of 2008 believed at that time confined to the [...]
When commenting on any weakness in the US economy, it has become common even shorthand for any outlet or author to affix the conventional explanation. Suspiciously low growth rates and far too many outright contractions, especially in manufacturing and industry, are blamed on overseas weakness and the dollar as if absent that foreign interference all would be sailing along right [...]
The focus on China and the Chinese economy is not just related to its size but more so the fact that it is the pivot point for the whole global system. In pure economic terms, as “end demand” from the developed world economies slows, the Chinese economy either absorbs that reduction (through its own internal “stimulus”) or passes it on [...]
The world cheered this morning’s trade estimates from China, as both exports and imports rebounded from a dismal start to the year. Exports rose 11.5% in March after falling 25% in February; imports fell “only” 7.6% after declining 13.8% the month before. Despite the difficulties with data calculations around the Lunar New Year, economists were quick with their usual glowing [...]
US trade statistics for February improved in both exports and imports, but there are questions as to the reason for the reverse and whether it is actually meaningful. After abysmal performance in every segment and category in January, there was some give back in February including positive numbers in some places. That suggests that January’s trade activity might have been [...]
According to Discern Investment Analytics, the number of retail store closings in the first two months of 2016 was about a third more than the closings in the same two months last year. That’s bad news just in terms of the raw increase, but more so given that there was a wave of shutting retailer outlets last year, too. Store [...]
Setting aside all other considerations and doubts about QQE, there was one factor that was supposed to be unassailable. That was the yen. QQE as a “money printing” operation was understood to act heavily on the exchange value of the Japanese currency so that it would drastically alter the competitive pricing of Japanese goods in Japan’s favor. From that point, [...]
January and February economic accounts for China are notoriously difficult to judge because of the non-uniform occurrence of the Lunar New Year. That is why, for example, China’s National Bureau of Statistics doesn’t even bother with industrial production, retail sales or fixed asset investment in those individual months, preferring to combine them together in one release encompassing both January and [...]
The PPI estimate for China was not a fifth straight -5.9%, instead the estimate for January 2016 was -5.3%; not appreciably different but at least not blatantly sticking with a single number. China’s CPI remained below 2% at just 1.8% in January, showing that as far as calculated “inflation” none of the PBOC’s massive efforts since November last year have [...]
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