The conventional wisdom last year as it related to the “dollar” was that its ascent had to be confirmation of the divergence between US economic fortune and the continued and even growth misfortune of the rest of the world. That is pretty much standard orthodoxy as it seeks to align financialism with a generic view of the economy. On its [...]
Recognizing the danger of relying too much on a PMI, the official version of the Chinese PMI not only disappointed absent any detectable rebound it also contained at least a superficial indication that the US isn’t experiencing one either. Overall, the PMI stayed right at 50, for whatever that might be worth, but several key subcomponents moved deeper below that [...]
For the first time since June 2012 Japan has attained a trade surplus. It is, however, premature to interpret that as an end to the impoverishment the island has undertaken these past three years, the last two under QQE. There are various reasons for the end of the negative trade imbalance, but the most significant surround the Chinese New Year. [...]
The Chinese lunar year always offers difficulty with Chinese economic figures, and this year was perhaps heightened in that respect since the New Year fell rather late on February 19. That suggests less dependable interpretations especially about February figures. So after rising a suspicious 48.3% in February, Chinese exports (in US$’s) are down 15% in March even though they were [...]
Just as a follow-up to further highlight and emphasize the “monetary illusion” of currency devaluation in this closed environment, the yen’s returned devaluation against the “dollar” more recently has renewed confusion (or intentional misdirection) about what Abenomics is supposedly accomplishing. Taken solely from the perspective of the Japanese internally, exports to the US are once more growing, and doing so [...]
More bad news for the rest of the world, or at least the world’s economists, that has been anticipating the US economy as a means by which to expel negative economic forces. The idea of decoupling is not just something that suggests the US economy is moving contrary to all the rest, but also the sole source of hope for [...]
Japan’s GDP grew by 2.2% in Q4 but that was far less than the 3.7% expected by economists. As a whole, consumer spending and business investment remained quite weak, “unexpectedly” so, confounding interpretations that Japan was heading in the right direction after its brief, sharp slump. Japan’s economy pulled out of recession more slowly than expected last quarter, with soft [...]
The amount of inconsistency is certainly consistent when viewing the trouble mainstream analysis has with trying to exclude the possibility of economic forces from explaining why things are the way they are. The latest trade data from China was deafening, too much to pass off as a simple case of a minor blip. Exports in January declined rather sharply, “unexpectedly” [...]
There is still no evidence that the US economy is doing anything but continued sputtering. This is not news to the rest of the world, however, as the persistent lack of actual American “demand” has been felt nearly everywhere. Domestic economists, and a great many foreign counterparts, continue to see the US as the sole engine of economic hope. But [...]
Japan has faded from the front page, but the economic disaster continues to bother. The Bank of Japan has been forced back from its first target “against” the “deflationary mindset” that launched QQE back in April 2013. The goal then was not to achieve 2% “inflation”, but rather a stable and sustained 2% rate. Needless to say, oil prices are [...]
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