At the same time the Bank of Japan cut its outlook for “inflation” last month, seriously violating the standard set at the beginning of QQE to meet its target within 2-years, they also raised their growth predictions for the coming fiscal year (starting in April). Nobody seems to have appreciated the irony of that since almost all of the increase [...]
There is still no evidence that the US economy is doing anything but continued sputtering. This is not news to the rest of the world, however, as the persistent lack of actual American “demand” has been felt nearly everywhere. Domestic economists, and a great many foreign counterparts, continue to see the US as the sole engine of economic hope. But [...]
Japan has faded from the front page, but the economic disaster continues to bother. The Bank of Japan has been forced back from its first target “against” the “deflationary mindset” that launched QQE back in April 2013. The goal then was not to achieve 2% “inflation”, but rather a stable and sustained 2% rate. Needless to say, oil prices are [...]
The European mess is coming more into view, and in almost every case that is a negative outcome. There really isn’t much going right in Europe right now, belying everything that was said, done or proclaimed only a year ago. Italian unemployment unexpectedly rose to a record high that’s more than double the German rate, keeping alive concerns about the [...]
In March 2009, only two days after the exact bottom in US stocks, Alan Greenspan took the pages of the Wall Street Journal to declare, declaratively, that the Fed was not to blame for the catastrophe. His “evidence” was based on this single supposition: The second, and far more credible, explanation [for the housing bubble] agrees that it was indeed [...]
Given all that has transpired in China this past year, year and a half it is likely that confusion will continue if only due to bias and preconceptions about “omniscience” in central banking. For my part, the PBOC has been unusually open and candid about “what” it is doing, particularly in the framework of the high degree of secrecy under [...]
The Caracas Stock Exchange Index only gained 44% this year, a far less intense surge than the 452% increase in 2013. Of course, not even in Venezuela do stocks travel in a straight line forever, as the exchange saw a bit of an extended “correction” for most of this year. However, the upswing is back as almost all of the [...]
There has been nothing good out of China in the past few months, which is why the call for more action by the PBOC has only grown. Despite what are really clear intentions, economists continue to look at financial operations in China as if it were still 2010 or even 2012. When the China PMI disappointed (for whatever that is [...]
While Abenomics continues to be classified as “pro-growth” rather than vilified for what it has done, that is as clear in the real economy as it is in the financial realm. Japanese experimentation with ZIRP has destroyed, effectively, any informational content from the JGB curve which contributes to continued resource waste. The Japanese just auctioned a 2-year note at a negative [...]
In commentary about Shinzo Abe’s overwhelming re-election last week, there was a growing sense of divergence between rhetoric and support. Clearly, Abe’s administration had the nearly full support of the Japanese people, a fact due more than anything to the manner in which “economics” is not just reported but understood. In describing the looming track of a worse recession from [...]
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