The term “brick and mortar” has come to be a mostly 21st century antonym for online shopping. It was first used in the banking industry as far back as the early 1970’s. Banks led the adoption of innovations, foreseeing the possible gains in communication technology and not just in the eurodollar context of “floating” currency (shadow banking). Computerization even at [...]
Canada’s economy remains the distinct enigma of the developed world, where the binary business cycle breakdown is perhaps most conspicuous. When oil prices first crashed to end 2014 and start 2015, even economists expected Canada’s economy to suffer, so exposed as it was and remains to the energy sector. But after two rough quarters to begin last year, that was [...]
There has to this point been one key element missing from “reflation.” Or maybe it hasn’t been missing, it just hasn’t been consistent with what I would consider that term to mean. The WTI price remains quite range-bound even though there is at the moment only wind at its back. OPEC had just pledged less production, and though US production [...]
Consumer prices accelerated again in October 2016, with the overall CPI calculating a 1.64% inflation rate. That is up from 1.46% in September, and the highest since October 2014. The reason is energy prices. For the first time in over two years, the energy component of the CPI was positive year-over-year. Having been as low as -20% in early 2015, [...]
Earlier this year it was reported that a great many OPEC nations were on track to repay China in oil rather than “dollars.” Reuters had calculated that between $30 and $50 billion of prior loans were to be closed out via each country’s crude capacities. As the price of the black stuff has dropped, however, that leaves them with little [...]
Industrial production fell another 1% in September year-over-year, the 13th consecutive contraction. With that, though the slope of the decline remains unusually shallow like almost every other economic account related to manufacturing and production, the contractions are now lapping. The index level for industrial production in September 2016 is 1.3% less than the level from September 2014; the relevant part [...]
At the end of August, the US Energy Information Administration reported that it had been overstating domestic demand for oil and energy products to a considerable degree. Using imprecise and lagging data, the calculations for the amount of product being exported overseas was understated by an average of 16%. That meant more output was being used elsewhere, thus less product [...]
Chinese oil imports surged again in August to the equivalent of 7.77 million barrels per day (mbpd). That was significantly more than July’s pace of 7.35 mbpd, and up an astounding 1.5 mbpd from August 2015. It was the highest rate of oil imports since April. The demand for commodities hasn’t been limited to just crude oil, as coal imports [...]
The most remarkable aspect of the WTI crude oil futures curve this month has been its amazing ability to maintain its shape no matter which direction or by how much. Previously, as “dollar” pressures either built or ebbed, the futures curve would either steepen at the front (liquidation pressure) or flatten toward more normal backwardation (easing of the “dollar” difficulties). [...]
The massive wildfires in Alberta earlier this year had a tremendously negative effect upon not just the oil sector but all of Canada. Not surprisingly, Canadian GDP released today was abysmal. Falling 1.6% in Q2, that was the worst quarter since 2009. Fortunately for the Bank of Canada who had been “stimulating” again since last July when it cut the [...]
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