Given the attention to oil prices lately, it sure seems as if the media is determined to make a case for supply causation rather than anything of demand that might harm the established recovery narrative. In almost every major financial outlet, and more than a few “mainstream” “news” centers, there is a uniform tale of how lower oil prices are [...]
April trade data for Chinese exports purportedly show a rebound forming, though its size and even legitimacy is still much in doubt. The fake Hong Kong invoice scandal of last year is making comparisons to this year difficult, but that doesn’t and won’t quell the extrapolations. The export data are “somewhat inconsistent with the weakness seen in new export orders” [...]
The economic hopes for 2014 have been largely concentrated in a few sectors. Monetary authorities have been counting on the historical channel of housing to be one of the continued “bright spots” that would transition finally, after almost five years, into an unambiguous recovery. You always have to be cautious about reading too much into one data point, so it [...]
A simple review of recent data on demand in the US for actual goods. Less people driving to work (because fewer are working?). Perhaps the US can take the Japan route and export our way into the monetary panacea? Well, at the very least, the above data gives us a global trade reason for this: Click here to sign up [...]
Global trade is one of the primary “headwinds” facing the global economy, and it does contribute to the lack of dollar flow impeding exchange functions in troubled currency areas. A large part of the “solution” proffered by central banks is an appeal to currency devaluation in order to boost export activity. The primary impediment, something that flies in the face [...]
Because of the way GDP is calculated currently, the latest release on the US trade deficit is going to boost GDP slightly for Q2 (and just as likely will get canceled by a downward revision somewhere else). The logic and methodology is sound, but that does not mean it is a perfect measure. The fact that imports declined so much [...]
Stay In Touch