The ISM Manufacturing Index declined slightly for March 2017, pulling back by 0.5 points after registering a multi-year high in February. The difference between the index and troubling auto sales, for example, is another reminder of what is truly a large disparity between economic statistics and sentiment. The ISM version of a PMI is considered more reliable because it asks [...]
Retail sales comparisons were for February 2017 skewed by the extra day in February 2016. With the leap year February 29th a part of the base effect, the estimated growth rates (NSA) for this February are to some degree better than they appear. Seasonally-adjusted retail sales were in the latest estimates essentially flat when compared to the prior month (January). [...]
The first major economic data of 2017 from China was highly disappointing to expectations of either stability or hopes for actual acceleration. On all counts for the combined January-February period, the big three statistics missed: Industrial Production was 6.3%, Fixed Asset Investment 8.9%, and Retail Sales just 9.5%. For retail sales, the primary avenue for what is supposed to be [...]
As oil prices remain as they are in relation to where they were one year ago, measured inflation rates have come back up, some faster than others. This does mimic the real world situation where consumers are paying more now for gasoline than they did last year. Even though they are paying less than three years ago for the same [...]
Target announced both bad results as well as distressing guidance. The retail giant has been under pressure, and its quarterly update for its Q4 only confirmed the concerns. The company first reported the worst comparable store sales numbers (-1.5%) in three years. It was the third straight quarterly contraction for its comparables. For stores open at least a year, same [...]
Retail sales grew by 4.92% year-over-year in January 2017, the third consecutive month of gains around 5%. It was the first time for three months near that level since 2014. Given the behavior of the economy in the second half of last year it is almost eerie the similarity in behavior to the 2013-14 period. The statistics for neither period [...]
The only unequivocally positive aspect to the looming “stimulus” debate is the immense political theater it will generate, and has already generated. Hypocrisy will be standard fare, and in any number of ways. For every Occupy Wall Street Obama supporter who found himself likely for the first time in his life enthusiastically embracing “record high stocks” in 2013 will now [...]
Nowhere is the “dollar’s” effects more damaging than in any real economy dependent upon it. It is quite fitting that on a day when the PBOC surprises with a desperate move to reduce the RRR for big banks, who have already been for some time the outlet for massive RMB liquidity, Chinese officials release economic statistics that show little or [...]
The term “brick and mortar” has come to be a mostly 21st century antonym for online shopping. It was first used in the banking industry as far back as the early 1970’s. Banks led the adoption of innovations, foreseeing the possible gains in communication technology and not just in the eurodollar context of “floating” currency (shadow banking). Computerization even at [...]
The Federal Reserve reported this week that consumer credit increased by $24.5 billion in November, the largest expansion since August and one of the biggest monthly changes in the data series. Non-revolving credit was actually subdued at least as compared to what has become typical. Revolving credit, on the other hand, surged by $11 billion. That was nearly as much [...]
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