After a relief rally, risk assets are at a critical juncture. We may be seeing a bottoming in global risk assets and hopefully another up-leg in the current expansion. But pessimism and risk aversion are high. We will need to see better economic news to alleviate the fears that higher interest rates will push us into recession. The popping of [...]
The wedge pattern that was formed by the S&P 500 Index ((IVV)) finally resolved itself with a big move downward in August. The market corrected to the 1867 and retested that low in late September. Since the beginning of October, the market bounced off that level and has been on a tear. We might finally be in the midst of the [...]
This past week, the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) tested and then held support at the 1867 level (at least temporarily) after its crushing meltdown from the 2130 level. If the index manages to hold here, we may test resistance at the 50-week moving average, which was once strong support. If it doesn’t hold the lows, we are looking at [...]
The following table presents the probability of 4 possible paths for the economy and our macro research partners expected return for major asset classes in each scenario. The weighted average of all scenarios is presented in the last column. Click here to sign up for our free weekly e-newsletter. For information on Alhambra Investment Partners' money management services and [...]
Has the much-anticipated correction finally arrived? After trading within a range of 150 or so points during 2015, the S&P 500 Index (IVV) fell off a cliff in late summer, decisively breaking the 50-week moving average but holding support at the 1900 level. The S&P 500 is now down 4.79% year-to-date. The EMU Index ((EZU)), or the European Economic and [...]
Here is a table of recommendations for regional equity allocation from our research partner. Click here to sign up for our free weekly e-newsletter. For information on Alhambra Investment Partners' money management services and global portfolio approach, Douglas R. Terry, CFA is reachable at: [email protected] This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. It is the opinion of the [...]
The Federal Reserve left interest rates at 0 after their 2 day policy meeting this week. Less concerning, they lowered the forecast for future rates. We have red and green street lights. Why? Because society finds it beneficial that people using our streets aren't speeding through an intersection from both directions at the same time. We have laws against stealing. Why? [...]
Research we follow is showing that the Fed is reaching a point where employment gaps have closed and output gaps are closing. By not raising rates soon, they risk falling behind the eight ball and over-stimulating the economy. Deviation from the Taylor Rule is large. Hosing Prices inflation indicate that rates are too low. [...]
The wedge pattern that was formed by the S&P 500 Index ((IVV)) finally resolved itself with a big move downward. We might finally be in the midst of the long-talked about correction, but we will likely test support at the 2050 level beforehand. The index is down 3.33% YTD. The S&P 500 Value Index ((IVE)), which consists primarily of US large-cap [...]
The S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) held support at the 1900 level (at least temporarily) after its crushing meltdown from the 2130 level over the last month. If the index manages to hold here, we may test resistance at the 50-week moving average, which was once strong support. If it doesn't hold the 1900 level, we are looking at the [...]
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