Weekly Market Pulse: TANSTAAFL

By |2022-05-16T07:41:16-04:00May 15th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

TANSTAAFL is an acronym for "There ain't no such thing as a free lunch". It has been around a long time - Rudyard Kipling used it in an essay in 1891 - but it was popularized by Robert Heinlein's 1966 book, "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress". In economics, it most often refers to tradeoffs or opportunity costs; resources are [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Fat Pitch?

By |2022-05-09T08:40:40-04:00May 9th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Something very important happened last week. No, it had nothing to do with the stock market, at least not directly. There was a lot of volatility in stocks last week but in the end, the S&P 500 was down a mere 21 basis points (0.21%). Yes, growth stocks continued their march toward reality with the NASDAQ 100 down 1.25% but [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Welcome Back To The Old Normal

By |2022-05-02T20:46:23-04:00May 2nd, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Stagflation. It's a word that strikes fear in the hearts of investors, one that evokes memories - for some of us - of bell bottoms, disco, and Jimmy Carter's American malaise. The combination of weak growth and high inflation is the worst of all worlds, one that required a transformational leader and a cigar-chomping central banker to defeat the last [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: No Place To Hide

By |2022-04-25T16:48:44-04:00April 25th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Well, that was an ugly week. Of the six major assets we track, only one was up last week - REITs. Large and small-cap stocks - down. General commodity indexes - down. Gold - down. Bonds - down. The early part of the week was actually pretty calm but Thursday and Friday - especially that close on the low Friday [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Time To Get Contrarian?

By |2022-04-18T06:55:46-04:00April 17th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Remember, your goal in investing isn't to earn average returns; you want to do better than average. Thus your thinking has to be better than that of others - both more powerful and at a higher level. Since others may be smart, well-informed and highly computerized, you must find an edge they don't have. You must think of something they [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: What Yield Curve Inversion

By |2022-04-11T05:52:45-04:00April 10th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Well, that didn't last long. I wrote last week about the inversion of the 10-year/2-year term spread as the yield of the 2-year Treasury note rose above the yield of the 10-year Treasury note. Using end-of-day data, the curve inverted on Friday, April 1st, and stayed that way until....Monday, April 4th. The spread closed last Friday, April 8th at 19 [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: What Now?

By |2022-04-04T06:47:23-04:00April 3rd, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The yield curve inverted last week. Well, the part everyone watches, the 10-year/2-year Treasury yield spread, inverted, closing the week a solid 7 basis points in the negative. The difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields is not the yield curve though. The 10/2 spread is one point on the Treasury yield curve which is positively sloped from 1 [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: The Cure For High Prices

By |2022-03-28T07:45:44-04:00March 27th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

There's an old Wall Street maxim that the cure for high commodity prices is high commodity prices. As prices rise, two things will generally limit the scope of the increase. Demand will wane as consumers just use less or find substitutes. Supply will also increase as the companies that extract these raw materials open new mines, grow more crops, or [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: All Clear?

By |2022-03-21T07:49:16-04:00March 20th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Why did stocks sell off in recent months? Was it the emergence of the Omicron variant? That was a popular narrative right after Thanksgiving but that lasted less than a month before stocks decided to look past COVID make a new high right after the new year. Was the correction due to fears of the Fed raising interest rates and [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Is This A Bear Market?

By |2022-03-14T07:46:24-04:00March 13th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

I don't know the answer to the question posed in the title. No one does because the future is not predictable. I don't know what will happen in Ukraine. I don't know how much what has already happened there - and what might - matters to the US and global economy. I don't know if the Fed is making a [...]

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