Alhambra Portfolios

Weekly Market Pulse: The Fed Gets Its Wish

By |2024-07-07T20:25:12-04:00July 7th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

The economic data wasn't particularly shocking or weak but it seemed as if last week may have marked a change in the economic outlook. The 10-year Treasury note yield only fell 7 basis points on the week but that only tells part of the story. Rates rose strongly on Monday, up 15 basis points at the high of the day. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: The S&P 500 Rules Everything Around Me

By |2024-07-01T07:05:12-04:00July 1st, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

The 2nd quarter is officially over and it was one of the strangest I’ve experienced in my 33 year career. To jump straight to the punchline, if you owned large cap growth stocks, you had a great quarter. If you owned almost anything else, you didn’t and you likely lost money. I don’t know when the bear market in doing [...]

3rd Quarter Secular Outlook

By |2024-06-27T17:38:23-04:00June 27th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

We've had an economic boom of investment in AI, manufacturing and infrastructure over the past 18 months. Secular trends like electrification, AI, a space based economy are real. Valuations for companies involved in equipment investment for new technology buildout are stretched. Who will be tomorrow's winners? We've had an economic boom in the US over the past 18 months. The [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: A Concentrated Bet

By |2024-06-17T07:07:21-04:00June 16th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

The S&P 500 reached a milestone recently. Or at least I think so. The technology sector, as of this week, is now 33.6% of the index. If you count the Communications sector as technology - and you should since 49% of the sector is Meta and Google - the allocation to technology oriented companies is 42.8%. The top 3 companies [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: The Fed’s Conundrum

By |2024-06-03T07:22:46-04:00June 3rd, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

"The uncertainty about where neutral is today creates a challenge for policymakers." - Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Last week was a volatile one for markets with big swings in stocks and bonds in a holiday-shortened week. The economic data didn't appear to be sufficiently out of the expected range to justify big moves but we got them anyway. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Is Perception Reality?

By |2024-05-27T20:51:51-04:00May 27th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

A recent poll conducted by Harris and the UK news outlet The Guardian, produced some interesting results. Of those polled: 56% believe the US economy is in recession 49% believe the S&P 500 is down for the year 49% believe the unemployment rate is at a 50-year high 72% think inflation is increasing The reporting on this has been mostly [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Ch-Ch-Changes

By |2024-05-20T07:40:57-04:00May 19th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

There were two important inflation reports last week. One of them, the Producer Price Index, focuses on wholesale prices and it showed inflation hotter than expected in April. The year-over-year change bottomed in June of last year at just 0.3% and has been rising steadily since then. It now stands at 2.2%. The market reaction to this report was - [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Question Time

By |2024-05-13T07:31:49-04:00May 12th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

Special Note: Back in late March, I highlighted a charitable organization - Our Grounds - that I had had a very positive interaction with and asked that you consider donating. I also asked readers to send me recommendations for other charities they supported and today I am pleased to feature Sugar Plum Bakery in Virginia Beach, VA, recommended by Alhambra [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: What Did He Say?

By |2024-05-06T07:26:56-04:00May 5th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

Coming into last week's FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell was expected to be hawkish. I know that because numerous articles in the financial press told me so which makes me wonder if the articles themselves affected those expectations. Maybe. Bloomberg is now producing a Fed Sentiment index that is powered by a natural language processing algorithm trained on more than 60,000 [...]

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