Alhambra Portfolios

Tactical Update: Long-Term Trends

By |2020-12-24T07:52:40-05:00December 24th, 2020|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Note: There are a lot of charts in this post. That doesn't mean that we are technicians. We use charts because we are primarily interested in trends, especially long-term, big-picture trends. And charts are the easiest way to present that information. In general, you will want your tactical adjustments to respect the long-term trend. There are times when it makes [...]

Tactical Update: Uncertainty Abounds

By |2020-10-13T13:22:44-04:00October 13th, 2020|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

This seems an opportune time to review the difference between Strategy and Tactics. Strategy and tactics are how we achieve our goals and objectives. In our specific case, the goals and objectives are financial in nature. Strategy is the path we will take to get from where we are today to where we want to be tomorrow; it is the [...]

A Tactical Update: Whither Goest The Dollar

By |2020-07-27T16:17:46-04:00July 27th, 2020|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Our Fortress strategic asset allocation includes 5 distinct asset classes: The Fortress allocation has historically produced better risk-adjusted returns than the traditional 60% stocks/40% bonds allocation. The bond allocation is varied to adjust the risk of the portfolio. A Fortress allocation with 20% bonds has produced a higher return with lower standard deviation (volatility) than the 60/40 portfolio. In a [...]

SPECIAL REPORT: The Yield Curve And What It Means

By |2019-12-06T10:39:07-05:00September 13th, 2019|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Financial Planning, Markets, Special Reports|

The Yield Curve Inverted! Recession is Coming! Do you need to worry about the yield curve inversion? Not if you have a strategy appropriate to your circumstances. Not if you know what tactics you will employ when recession is imminent. And most importantly, not if you know what the yield curve and other indicators are really saying about the current [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update: The More Things Change…

By |2019-02-22T10:08:02-05:00February 22nd, 2019|Alhambra Portfolios|

I haven't written a formal asset allocation update since November so this one will be a little bit of catch-up for non-clients as we did make some minor changes in early January. On January 7th we shifted our bond allocation somewhat to reduce duration. Continuing to hold longer-dated bonds at that point essentially meant betting on a recession and I [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update – November 2018

By |2018-11-19T16:38:15-05:00November 19th, 2018|Alhambra Portfolios, Financial Planning|

The risk budget is again unchanged this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is 50/50. Why is the stock market falling? Is it fear of a trade related slowdown? Or of an overly aggressive Fed hiking rates too far and killing one of the longest US expansions on record? Or is it more [...]

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