Weekly Market Pulse: As Clear As Mud

By |2021-07-19T08:07:27-04:00July 18th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Is there anyone left out there who doesn't know the rate of economic growth is slowing? The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 45 basis points since peaking in mid-March. 10-year TIPS yields have fallen by the same amount and now reside below -1% again. Copper prices peaked a little later (early May), fell 16% at the recent low, and are [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Contrasts & Contradictions

By |2021-07-06T08:54:39-04:00July 5th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Six months ago, the US was still reporting 226K new cases of COVID a day, a rate that would peak in the first half of January at over 300k. Daily deaths also peaked in those first two weeks of the new year at over 4000. The economy was still struggling to recover, most restaurants surviving on takeout traffic, and no [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Who’s The Boss?

By |2021-06-14T08:26:10-04:00June 13th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

I told you last week that there were strange things going on in the labor market but I had no idea how much of an understatement that really was. Much of last week's economic focus was on the inflation report but I think the JOLTS report may turn out to be more significant. Inflation was indeed pretty hot year over [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Where’s That Confounded Boom?

By |2021-06-01T07:01:47-04:00May 31st, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The US economy is still stuck in the stall it's been in since early spring. Sometime in mid-March everything just seems to have gone into suspended animation. Interest rates and the copper/gold ratio stopped rising. Real interest rates (TIPS) stopped rising. The US dollar started falling. But nothing has fallen so far as to warrant concern about a double-dip recession. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: The Crypto Distraction

By |2021-05-24T07:28:03-04:00May 23rd, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

It was hard not to hear about cryptocurrencies last week what with the bear market and all. Actually, you can make the case that bitcoin has had two bear markets since mid-April. There was a 27% decline followed by a 27% rally, followed by last week's rout. From its intraday peak in April to its intraday low last week, bitcoin [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Live From New York….

By |2021-05-10T07:42:23-04:00May 9th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

We have reached the point of absurdity in the crypto markets. There were people buying Dogecoin last week in anticipation of Elon Musk's appearance on Saturday Night Live, with the expectation, presumably, that he would say something bullish and they'd be able to ring the cash register. Easy, peasy, cha-ching. Except, well, at last check it didn't work out that [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Have We Reached Peak Speculation?

By |2021-05-03T07:18:05-04:00May 2nd, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Last week I was contacted by two clients seeking information about cryptocurrencies. One was my godson, 12 years old and just getting started in investing. So far, he's bought Nintendo and Roblox (the latter against my recommendation but what do I know about video games?). But last week he said he wants to buy a cryptocurrency. He first mentioned Dogecoin [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Peaking? Already?

By |2021-04-26T08:09:23-04:00April 25th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

April 15th was the two-week anniversary of the day my wife and I got our second Moderna shot. We have spent the last 13 months being very careful about the virus, limiting our contacts, social distancing, and generally doing anything that seemed helpful. I am certainly aware that others took a more liberal attitude as is their right. But, for [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Much Ado About Not Much

By |2021-03-22T04:06:34-04:00March 21st, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The SLR exemption is ending! The SLR exemption is ending! Doesn't exactly roll off the tongue, does it? There has been rampant speculation the last few weeks about the fate of the exemption the Fed provided banks a year ago with regard to the Supplemental Leverage Ratio that allowed them to ignore Treasuries and reserves. The banks themselves warned that [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: How High Can Rates Go?

By |2021-03-08T08:45:17-05:00March 7th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

I've been getting that question a lot these days. How high can rates go? It is asked in a way that seems to imply that the answer is obvious - not much. Why? The answer is almost always the same; the Fed can't and won't let rates go up. If they did, it would kill the economy and raise the [...]

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