First and foremost, Durable goods peaked in the short term in June. A repeated theme, we saw some strength in Sep, October is again weak, expect November to be better given a really bad Nov 22. Aircraft orders are significant. The $16B drop in Durable Goods Orders is from a drop in non defense aircraft orders. The following 2 graphs [...]
After considering all the data this week, the GDPNow estimate is 1.2% growth. This is down from the initial estimate of 2.3% on Oct 27th and down from 2.1% at the end of last week. The big dial mover was today's ISM report. Specifically the report had negative repercussions for goods consumption, business equipment investment and goods exports. Rates have [...]
Global manufacturing is consolidating in slightly contractionary territory at 49.3 in November up from 48.8 last month and a 6th consecutive below 50. In addition to the composite, Output (49.9), New Orders (48.9), New Export Orders (48.1) and Employment (49.2) are all indicating slight contraction. But all ticked up from last month. Inflation is still present but edged lower. Input [...]
The ISM PMI came in unchanged in November at 46.7, the 13th consecutive month this series has indicated contraction in manufacturing. On a positive note, though current production dropped, new orders rose. Other data points of note: Export orders dropped (6 of 18 industries reporting growth) Backlogs dropped (no industry reported growth in backlogs) Prices are no longer going down [...]
Construction spending growth accelerates again. This is all about non-residential construction spend which is growing at 20% yoy whereas residential spend is only growing by 1% but is at least finally a positive contributor. To be fair, the additive growth top GDP has been impressive, but it is waning. November 2022 was a big contributor and the annual growth equation [...]
This number was truly stunning and almost unbelievable. Chi-palm as we used to call in back in the day jumped from a recessionary level of 44 to 55.8. The index has done this when exiting recession and also acted this way just before going into a recession. After sitting in recessionary territory for a year, it jumps 12 points. We [...]
This was a very positive report. The consumer is showing no signs of pulling back or needing to pull back in the near term, buoying GDP and GDP expectations. Interest rates float higher on the news. A quick comment on market dynamics and reactions to releases such as this one. First, everything is relative to expectations. And for a report [...]
We are still at historically low levels of both initial and continuing claims. And we are concerned and watching as the trend looks to be on the rise. Weekly continuing claims continues to be above the 4-week average. We get concerned for economy when this number goes from 2,000,000 to 2,500,000 but wary that the low starting point may indicate [...]
All advanced series released by the Census Bureau corroborate the same Q4 weakness seen in the advanced durable goods number from last week. GDPNow and almost all of the data is indicating a slow down from a strong Q3. Advanced data for wholesale and retail inventories and the trade deficit in goods all point to a slight slowing in GDP [...]
It's a mountainous monetary problem. “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” -- Milton Friedman This is a real time case study. Color me skeptical about a "soft landing." At the very least , there's likely to be some bumps. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or [...]
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