Durable goods continue to suggest a weak economy that only seems to remain in that state. Year-over-year, unadjusted estimates for new orders rose slightly for the first time since May, while seasonally adjusted total orders (including the transportation sector) were fractionally lower at $226.9 billion. That amount was 2% less than January 2016 and 4.3% below August 2014. Once again [...]
Though I highly doubt he will admit it, he’s just not the type, even Ben Bernanke knows on some level that bond market is decidedly against him, or at least his legacy. Economists have a funny way of looking at bonds, decomposing interest rates into Fisherian strata. To monetary policy, interest rates break down into three parts: expected inflation over [...]
On August 31, 2008, Germany’s Commerzbank announced that it was purchasing ailing rival Dresdner Bank from Allianz SE. As usual, however, the deal wasn’t described in those terms as nothing ever is so honest in public. Then-Allianz CEO Michael Diekmann said at the time of the announcement: As a strong bank, the new company can safeguard jobs in the long [...]
There can be little doubt now outside of orthodox economics that the global economy is actually slowing, not accelerating as has been predicted. Economists themselves, however, continue to claim that things are getting better when the data strongly suggests otherwise. The latest depressing figures are from a pair of (orthodox) supranational organizations. First, the World Trade Organization (WTO) drastically reduced [...]
Perhaps the hardest part of analyzing the eurodollar system is synchronizing all its various dimensions into a common perspective. Coming from the traditional standpoint that views all these various parts as if they are all separate, such a task is often quite difficult. For example, the repo market is almost always described from the cash perspective as if there only [...]
For quite some time now I have been writing (constantly) about “something” going in “dollar” markets and funding markets all over the world. Chinese markets related to “dollars” have been the most prominent in their disorder, but there is a degree of causation that runs from eurodollars to China and perhaps back again. In other words, Chinese illiquidity is not [...]
It is never a good thing when official sources either named or unnamed are quoted in the media as denying bailout discussions. For any bank such rumors and denials are harmful because, obviously, they are a reflection of common perception. Furthermore, most people know all-too-well the true nature of any denials, thus reinforcing only that much more the troubling perceptions [...]
The end of the week finds the initial release of “flash” PMI readings across much of the world. In what will be surprising only to economists and policymakers, the commonality is “slowing.” It is never good to find universal deceleration, of course, but especially so in the second half of 2016. To begin with, whatever rebound there was in the [...]
As noted earlier today, the bond market is not truly a mystery or middle. In very simple terms that even Alan Greenspan might be able to understand, rising inflation and economic opportunity are reflected in higher interest rates and a steeper yield curve; full stop. The bond market, however, does not possess a crystal ball and thus must rely on [...]
Alan Greenspan is confused - again. The man who admitted to the world a decade ago he didn’t know much if anything about interest rates is now trying to change that reputation by suggesting yet again interest rates are set to rise. In testimony before Congress in February 2005, the then-Chairman of the Federal Reserve actually said: For the moment, [...]
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