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About Jeffrey P. Snider

Give us a call at 1-888-777-0970 or via email at info@alhambrapartners.com to discuss how his unique approach informs our investment decisions. We'd be happy to discuss our investment strategies and provide a complimentary portfolio review.

Curve Inversion 101: US CPI Politics Up Front, China PPI Down(ing) The Back

By |2022-06-13T18:54:55-04:00June 13th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While the world fixated on the US CPI, it was other “inflation” data from across the Pacific that is telling the real economic story. Having conflated the former with a red-hot economy, the fact American consumer prices aren’t tied to the actual economic situation has been lost in the shuffle of the FOMC’s hawkishness, with markets obliged to price wrong-way [...]

Update The Conflict of Interest Rate(s)

By |2022-06-10T20:14:48-04:00June 10th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What changed? For over a month, the Treasury market had the Fed and its rate hiking figured out. Rising recession risks had been confirmed by almost every piece of incoming data, including, importantly, labor data. It is the jobs market where much of the official “inflation” jawboning is centered, all that Phillips Curve stuff. So, whatever might seriously undermine Phillips [...]

Prices As Curative Punishment

By |2022-06-10T18:14:54-04:00June 10th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t exactly a secret, though the raw data doesn’t ever tell you why something might’ve changed in it. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, confirmed by industry sources, US new car sales absolutely tanked in May 2022. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 12.7 million, it was a quarter fewer than sales put down in May 2021 and [...]

Simple Economics and Money Math

By |2022-06-09T20:08:48-04:00June 9th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The BLS’s most recent labor market data is, well, troubling. Even the preferred if artificially-smooth Establishment Survey indicates that something has changed since around March. A slowdown at least, leaving more questions than answers (from President Phillips).That as much because of the other employment figures, the Household Survey. April and May, in particular, not just a slowdown but a drop [...]

A Volcker Pan Recession

By |2022-06-08T20:37:01-04:00June 8th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Volcker Myth is simple because there isn’t math for it just voodoo economics (to borrow George HW Bush’s phrase). In theory, the FOMC finally realized after more than a decade of currency devastation and its economic, financial, and social consequences, hey, inflation and money. Once Paul Volcker took over in ’79, he acted on the belated realization, seeking to [...]

World Bank Tries Reconciling Rapidly Rising Recession Risk

By |2022-06-07T20:03:45-04:00June 7th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As it now stands, the World Bank isn’t currently forecasting recession sweeping across the globe. Instead, the organization is merely warning this is a growing possibility. Econometric models abhor making big changes to projections within small timeframes, yet the regressions employed here couldn’t be helped this time.Back in January, at the last issue of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, [...]

“Inflation” Not Inflation, Through The Eyes of Inventory

By |2022-06-07T18:48:32-04:00June 7th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It isn’t just semantics, nor some trivial, egotistical use of quotation marks. There is an actual and vast difference between inflation and “inflation.” And in the final results, that difference isn’t strictly or even mainly about consumer prices.Who cares, most people wonder. After all, what does it really matter why prices are going up so far? The pain this causes [...]

More On Less Demand

By |2022-06-06T20:15:28-04:00June 6th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inconvenient timing, to say the least. Auto sales in the US last month were, well, not good. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the government agency responsible for GDP, unit sales of light vehicles tumbled to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 12.68 million in May 2022. That’s the lowest since December, down substantially from a not-too-high 14.50 million [...]

Demand Wasn’t Supposed To Be The Problem

By |2022-06-06T18:05:35-04:00June 6th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

They called it an atmospheric river, though I’m not really sure who “they” was nor whether the term is scientific or just media hype. Either way, in early November the Pacific Northwest of the US along with Western Canada was inundated by a, well, river of rainfall. Mudslides, torrential downpours, just a muddy mess across the entire region. At one [...]

No Pandemic. Not Rate Hikes. Doesn’t Matter Interest Rates. Just Globally Synchronized.

By |2022-06-03T20:25:43-04:00June 3rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The fact that German retail sales crashed so much in April 2022 is significant for a couple reasons. First, it more than suggests something is wrong with Germany, and not just some run-of-the-mill hiccup. Second, because it was this April rather than last April or last summer, you can’t blame COVID this time. Something else is going on.In America, the [...]

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