Very few people are against the concept of free trade, and those who are aren’t worth listening to. As a matter of economics (small “e”), free trade was established as a universal good that benefits all sides in one of the first scholarly debates that in the early 19th century helped turn political economics into a separate study meriting its [...]
On January 25, there was sudden burst of MBS repo volume in the DTCC statistics. This only covers the repo market that is visible taking place on the exchange, but without any other data for the vast majority of hidden transactions we have to assume that these are decent approximations for the whole. Since the published GC rates as well [...]
Construction spending had been increasing steadily since the start of 2011. Factoring both the size of the decline due to the housing bust and the timing of the turnaround in sales and prices, the mere fact that construction activity had been recovering was not really economically significant. As with most economic sectors, positive growth even to a substantial degree did [...]
Earlier in April, analysts were projecting $26.69 in as-reported second quarter earnings for the S&P 500. By the week of June 22, just prior to the start of Q2 earnings season, that estimate had only declined slightly to $26.38. For the week of July 21, just a month later, with about one-third of companies reporting the earnings figure sank to [...]
On April 1, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that its official PMI for the manufacturing sector had burst back above 50 for the first time since July 2015 before all the “global turmoil.” The NBS didn’t actually use the word “burst”, of course, as they simply reported the figure and economists and the media did the rest. It seemed [...]
Sticking with today's Japanese theme, there is a lot to further suggest why the BoJ would be attentive to "dollars" and why it matters (for everyone). A more detailed explanation is here (subscription required). "Dollar", not dollar. BONUS CHART (to add some pertinent scale):
As if a mirror of the Federal Reserve, what is more important from the Bank of Japan flop today is what it did do rather than what it did not. Everyone was looking for at the very least an even quicker pace to QQE if not the full-blown “helicopter” of momentum dreams. Instead, BoJ offered what appears tepidity. As widely [...]
In advance of today’s GDP release, it was expected that the Q2 estimate would be around 2.6% (it was only 1.2%). The major reason for the anticipated rebound was “strong” consumers, a theme that has been a part of the dominant economic narrative since 2014 introduced the phantom “best jobs market in decades.” No matter what happens in the economy, [...]
The advance estimate for second quarter GDP came in lower than expected. At just 1.211%, the anticipated rebound from the dreadful winter failed to materialize in any significant way. Worse, benchmark revisions now suggest that GDP has been around 1% for three straight quarters; Q4 2015 was revised down from 1.377% to just 0.869%; Q1 2016 was revised back 0.831%. [...]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its advance estimate for Q2 2016 GDP tomorrow, along with benchmark revisions that may render this entire discussion moot. By all expectations, GDP is believed to have rebounded from Q1’s 1.07% predicated on little more than that April through June was not nearly as bad as January through March. In fact, as [...]
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