The BLS published its updated JOLTS figures for August last week, and while most commentary continues to focus on the ephemeral Job Openings category it shouldn’t. Though Job Openings declined sharply by just about 300,000 in the current estimate (from a slight downward revision of July) it still rates as completely out of alignment with the rest of the JOLTS [...]
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has become something of a spectacle in the past year or so. As the FOMC claims to be data dependent upon its on schedule for ending ZIRP, Bullard’s interjecting media appearances seem to straddle either side, the exact which he takes being dependent on maybe not data but at least markets. While stocks seem [...]
IBM reported yesterday yet another disastrous quarter. Revenues declined by nearly 14%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of at least -12% revenue. That level and accumulation of shrinking has already surpassed the worst of the Great Recession for the company. That comparison holds whether you exclude currency or not, as currency “effects” in 2009 were just as strong and depressive. [...]
The proper use of statistics is, well, the proper use of statistics. While that is certainly a tautology it is also a valid criticism. The more “modern” we have become, the more the math is applied as if it were a substitute for general (and generous) scientific inquiry. Far too often, what is purported as such is nothing more than [...]
Earlier this year, not unlike China’s monthly variation, US manufacturing appeared to be shaking off the third straight extra-cold winter. By count of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the sector was determined (by conventional assessment) to be weak but solid and forward. That rebound contributed to both the dominant recovery idea (anything down is anomaly) as well as Yellen’s “transitory” admonishments. [...]
In Hamlet, Act 1, Scene III, Shakespeare warns, in his own poetic fashion and style, about what should happen when always or nearly so looking for only the easy way forward: I shall the effect of this good lesson keep, As watchman to my heart. But, good my brother, Do not, as some ungracious pastors do, Show me the steep [...]
Goldman Sachs just reported an extremely rough quarter, and not just for a bank that has earned a reputation as being on the “right” side of trading. The bank’s (and it is a bank, now) annualized return on equity put it next to BofAML and below Citigroup, of all indignities. The reason, as always, is FICC. Reported revenue there was [...]
Industrial production fell again in September, seasonally-adjusted month-over-month, for the eighth time out of nine months so far this year. Year-over-year IP was barely positive, at just +0.4%. The last time output growth was so stagnant (on the way down) was March 2008! It has become exceedingly difficult to assign this trend some temporary designation or as if it was [...]
There probably should be a cottage industry trying to figure out what Albert Einstein actually said or wrote quite against what is typically attributed to him (or Abraham Lincoln, Winston Churchill and many others). One such nugget purported from his genius was that compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe. That is how the sentiment seems to [...]
This could actually fit well within my last post, but it seemed distinctive enough to merit individual attention. Not really any commentary necessary from my part (this is for India,the world's seventh largest economy by GDP, if you don’t want to click on the link): Exports declined 24.3% from a year earlier to $21.84 billion, according to data released by [...]
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