Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

Global Doves Expire: China’s Big 3 Stats Put To Rest RRR Myths

By |2019-05-15T12:55:50-04:00May 15th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Fed has its pause. The ECB is going to conduct another T-LTRO. But of all the central bank responses to the “unexpected” global weakness of late 2018, the Chinese’s was supposed to be the leader. The most forceful pushback against a worldwide downturn was reported to have been the PBOC’s “powerful” RRR cuts. China’s central bank conducted two of [...]

Global Doves Expire: Fed Pause Fizzles (US Retail Sales)

By |2019-05-15T11:29:03-04:00May 15th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Before the stock market’s slide beginning in early October, for most people they heard the economy was booming, the labor market was unbelievably good, an inflationary breakout just over the horizon. Jay Powell did as much as anyone to foster this belief, chief caretaker to the narrative. He and his fellow central bankers couldn’t use the word “strong” enough. After [...]

Effective Recession First In Japan?

By |2019-05-14T17:43:46-04:00May 14th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For a lot of people, a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. This is called the technical definition in the mainstream and financial media. While this specific pattern can indicate a change in the business cycle, it’s really only one narrow case. Recessions are not just tied to GDP. In the US, the Economists who make the determination [...]

There’s Two Sides To Being (dollar) Sheltered

By |2019-05-14T12:06:20-04:00May 14th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I wrote yesterday, twice, that it’s the eurodollar’s world, we are all just trying to live in it. This is not a uniformly recognized fact of life, though. People in the US are sheltered. We tend to overlook the dollar because for us it’s just the dollar. The very idea of a global reserve currency is truly foreign here. https://youtu.be/Ri6rQozA1xo [...]

Curves Rhyme, Too

By |2019-05-13T18:59:59-04:00May 13th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

People have started to look back fondly upon the Asian flu. It was as global disaster, a dollar shortage which spread all across mostly Asia but not exclusively. The reason why it is talked about positively nowadays is LTCM and rate cuts. Popular myth has it that Greenspan’s Fed properly handled any economic fallout due to the former by enacting [...]

CNY, Its Doom Sisters, And Chinese Threats

By |2019-05-13T16:31:59-04:00May 13th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s a tell-tale sign of someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about. In the realm of global currency systems, anyone who brings up China’s massive stockpile of US Treasury assets inevitably they assign all the power to the Chinese. Xi could destroy Trump if he wanted, bringing down the US in a righteous fit of trade war anger. [...]

The Mark of the Eurodollar: Five Years of China Car Sales

By |2019-05-13T12:53:11-04:00May 13th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The biggest problem, among many, with 2017’s globally synchronized growth narrative was that it was always missing China. This was an enormous contradiction because the Chinese were supposed to be at the center of the rebirth. So much of what was being counted on from this “global growth” was figured to come out of the one country. And it was [...]

Curves Have Pointed The Way, And It’s The Way They Still Point

By |2019-05-10T16:52:02-04:00May 10th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the middle of last November, when the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve convened a conference on “global perspectives”, ironically, its officials were in a very good mood. The institution’s Chairman, Jay Powell, invited to speak at the gathering spelled out exactly why. Central bankers since Greenspan have made a habit of trying to say very little, but Powell [...]

JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon Warns Again On UST’s Even Though JPM Appears To Have Been Huge Buyers of UST’s

By |2019-05-09T18:09:37-04:00May 9th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon climbed back up on the bond bear. It was one year ago, May 7, 2018, when he went on BloombergTV and caused a substantial market stir when he said 4%. No one would want to buy UST’s what with inflation raging and the Federal Reserve forced into an overly aggressive stance by virtue of the [...]

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