Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

Does It Always Have To Begin In Farce?

By |2018-02-27T13:13:07-05:00February 27th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Imagine you live in a terrific neighborhood backed right up to a large wilderness. This heavily forested area has inside of it grown up a tremendous amount of underbrush. The local government, concerned for your property as well as those of your neighbors, starts making noises about taking care of the land before it dries out and a wildfire starts [...]

The More Easily Understandable Dollar Process

By |2018-02-26T18:03:29-05:00February 26th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Warren Buffett is complicated guy. He’s made out to be like your grandfather, the kind old guy who gives you simple and effective investment advice to help you make your way in this complex world. His idea for never investing in a business you don’t understand is good advice. It’s just that he doesn’t actually practice it. Any substantial review [...]

New Home Sales (Predictably) Fall Out of the Boom, Too

By |2018-02-26T16:17:15-05:00February 26th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

New home sales were down sharply again in January 2018. For the second straight month, the level of purchase activity fell substantially despite what are otherwise always described as robust or even booming economic conditions. Like the sales of existing homes, the sales of newly constructed units should be both moving upward as well as being significantly more than stuck [...]

Yeah, About This Boom

By |2018-02-26T12:28:02-05:00February 26th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In October 2006, the Communist Party of China unveiled a landmark new policy aimed at easing social and societal unrest in the country. The Chinese leadership would strive for a “harmonious society”, reaching this goal no later than 2020. As one of the final works for 16th Party Congress convened in 2002, it would stand as the template for how [...]

Central In Name Only (CINO?)

By |2018-02-23T16:33:36-05:00February 23rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is far too much shorthand in the study of the economy and markets. We take so many things for granted, we never really stop to ask if its appropriate that we should. The desire for quick rules of thumb is understandable enough given a complex world. There is probably nothing more in it than the economy and markets. It [...]

Is It Ever Different This Time?

By |2018-02-23T13:40:04-05:00February 23rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As my colleague Joe Calhoun likes to point out, nothing is new, everything has happened before. We like to think that’s not the case, as the saying goes every generation thinks it has invented sex. What changes is the form, the format largely remains the same. Human beings in 2018 are the same as they were in 1918. Quite recently, [...]

Blaming The Boom Basis

By |2018-02-22T18:31:50-05:00February 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Once the sick man of the global economy, Europe’s system had roared back in 2017. According to the narrative, everything is right right now on the Continent. Manufacturing couldn’t possibly be any better, and the ECB forced into “emergency” monetary measures for longer than almost anyone else (except, as always, Japan) is talking confidently about winding everything down. We are [...]

Independence, At Some Point

By |2018-02-21T15:54:59-05:00February 21st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve is ostensibly an independent agency of the government. Already it is beset by a contradiction. How can it be independent if it is otherwise an arm of the federal structure? It’s a problem beyond mere perception that officials have struggled to overcome since its inception. Between the Banking Act of 1935 that restructured the central bank in [...]

Not At All The Inflation They’ve Been Hoping For

By |2018-02-21T12:32:24-05:00February 21st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The National Association of Realtors is confused. The trade group for real estate professionals and salespeople just reported a significant drop in the level of resales for January 2018. After peaking at an annual pace of 5.72 million (revised) in November, existing home sales declined to 5.56 million (revised) in December and now just 5.38 million last month. That’s the [...]

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