Though the fourth quarter US real GDP headline rate was left practically unchanged, there was some notable shuffling of its underlying details. In addition, we now have the full GDI estimates to work with, including the BEA’s figure for something called Net Operating Surplus, therefore some better (hopefully) understanding of the real story (in my view) behind why it’s not [...]
Though labor data, like the market it measures, is a lagging macro indicator, there’s some use in closely tracking any changes to it. Financial markets may send out profound warning signals, as they are now, about the future which aren’t (yet) showing up in the employment statistics, still those estimates might provide at least some background behind in this case [...]
One of the biggest intellectual crimes of the Volcker Myth is how it quashed what likely would have been fruitful (in my opinion) further examination into the monetary designs of the actual global reserve system. People today still whisper about some secret oil-soaked deal which saw UST’s end up in the hands of Arabia’s Saudis, as if this was something [...]
To begin with, the economy today is absolutely nothing like it had been almost thirty years ago. That fact in and of itself should end the discussion right here. However, comparisons will be made and it does no harm to review them.I’m talking about 1994, or, more specifically, the eleven months between late February 1994 and early February 1995. Fearing [...]
What happened in October 2021? Another year’s Halloween, sure, some beerfest gluttony around the world. For all the happy revelries in that month the financial markets took a decidedly ominous turn. It hadn’t exactly been all rainbows and unicorns in them before then, yet they were at least stable to slightly optimistic about the future for 2022 or beyond.The list [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun says the cure for high prices is high prices. He looks at current supply & demand, the S&P 500, bonds, commodities, and what investors should consider right now.
Was this taking it a little too far, a little too obvious? Central bankers, since they aren’t real central bankers, their entire job is to project confidence. We get that. No matter what happens along the way, you can be sure policymakers aren’t going to ever let on in public they’re concerned. Think the famous scene in the Naked Gun [...]
It was likely inevitable, broad economic commentary sifting into the laundry yet again. With alarming regularity, every couple of years the idea and the term “decoupling” rears its filthy head as major global economies seem to diverge. They don’t, though, merely an illusion, a trick due mostly to differences in timing.It was Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO all the way back [...]
What can we make of the fact the US Treasury yield curve inverted between the 7-year and 10-year maturities first? It only took a few more days for more of the curve to bend upside-down, yet that just means the whole middle part is where the bad vibes are congregated. Does this somehow disqualify what would otherwise be a clear [...]
I know this gets to be like beating a dead horse. It’s a topic I keep going back to over and over again because, frankly, it absolutely deserves the constant focus. For one thing, you’ll never, ever hear this out of any so-called monetary official despite the fact that history has repeatedly and conclusively established collateral is itself currency and [...]
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