Goldman Sachs was the latest Wall Street bank to jump on low volatility. Despite an enormous gain in prop trading, most of the rest of the firm’s results were moving in the wrong direction. In its market making segment, for example, the firm booked $2.1 billion in net revenue in the third quarter, 22% less than what it took in [...]
Industrial Production rose 1.6% year-over-year in September 2017. That’s up from 1.2% growth in August, both months perhaps affected to some degree by hurricanes. The lack of growth and momentum, however, clearly predated the storms. The seasonally-adjusted index for IP peaked in April 2017, and has been lower ever since. This pattern, the disappointment this year is one we see [...]
If the essence of modern eurodollar money is bank balance sheet capacity, then we need not wonder what has gone wrong or why. The very heart of this global currency system no longer beats so healthy and strong. Global banks shrink rather than expand at a breakneck pace, their desire to do the latter restrained by the incapacity of the [...]
Chinese producer prices accelerated in September 2017, while consumer price increases slowed. The National Bureau of Statistics reported this weekend that China’s PPI was up 6.9% year-over-year, a quicker pace than the 6.3% estimated for August and a 5.5% rate in July. Earlier in the year producer prices were driven mostly by 2016’s oil rebound, along with those in the [...]
Chinese imports rose 18.7% in September 2017 year-over-year. That’s up from 13.5% growth in August. While near-20% expansion sounds good if not exhilarating, it isn’t materially different from 13.5% or 8% for that matter. In addition, Chinese trade statistics tend to vary month to month. What is becoming very clear is that China’s economy is behaving no differently than the [...]
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose back above 2% in September 2017 for the first time since April. Boosted yet again by energy prices, consumer prices overall still aren’t where the Fed needs them to be (by its own policies, not consumer reality). In fact, despite a 10.2% gain in the energy price index last month, the overall CPI [...]
Retail sales were added in September 2017 due to the hurricanes in Texas and Florida (and the other states less directly impacted). On a monthly, seasonally-adjusted basis, retail sales were up a sharp 1.7% from August. The vast majority of the gain, however, was in the shock jump in gasoline prices. Retail sales at gasoline stations rose nearly 6% month-over-month, [...]
There are supposedly jobs that Americans won’t do, and now there are, apparently, jobs that British won’t do. In the latter case, according to the UK’s Minister of State and Commonwealth, Sir Alan Duncan, it is the Europeans who were blamed for taking work from native English. The result was, in his view, Brexit. Duncan called it a “tantrum” last [...]
In the US our economic data for a few months at least will be on shaky ground due to the lingering economic impacts of severe hurricanes. In China, the potential for irregularity is perhaps as great, though it has nothing to do with the weather. In a little over a week, Communist Party officials will gather for their 19th Party [...]
https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.macrovoices.com/podcasts/MacroVoices-2017-10-05-Eurodollar-University-Part-2.mp3
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