Canada’s economy remains the distinct enigma of the developed world, where the binary business cycle breakdown is perhaps most conspicuous. When oil prices first crashed to end 2014 and start 2015, even economists expected Canada’s economy to suffer, so exposed as it was and remains to the energy sector. But after two rough quarters to begin last year, that was [...]
For the 55th consecutive month, the PCE Deflator came in under the 2% inflation target for the Federal Reserve’s inflation mandate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last week that inflation in November 2016 actually decelerated slightly from its meandering pace set more by oil price base effects than $4.5 trillion on the Fed’s balance sheet. Year-over-year the PCE Deflator [...]
The Census Bureau reported last week that durable goods (ex transportation) shipments were up 2.4% in November year-over-year (NSA). It was the third time in the past ten months that shipments have risen, and the highest growth rate since December 2014. New orders for durable goods (ex transportation) were also up, +3.3%, the fourth time this year. Rather than suggest [...]
At one point in time not all that long ago, basic economics (small “e”) ruled central banking. There was really no other choice, as out of necessity bred change and understanding. The English were perhaps first in that lead, as the Empire with greatest economic and financial reach. It is interesting what we take for granted today as if it [...]
When Ben Bernanke sat down with 60 Minutes for an interview in March 2009, it was then the first time in 20 years a sitting Federal Reserve Chairman had appeared on TV one on one. The timing was not coincidental, as right at that moment the whole world appeared to be falling apart. Nevermind that Bernanke had up to that [...]
For the most part the “reflation” narrative has focused on nominal interest rates. That, for once, actually makes some sense given interest rates are really at the center of all this. Stocks are whatever they are, but whether you figure the Federal Reserve and monetary policy or just the economic reflections of interest rates, the nominal world does seem to [...]
Even if you believe that the economy we find today is irrelevant to one that will result from a range of better policies under a Trump administration, you still have a timing problem. I fully believe that “reflation” has to this point been about promise, and that mostly relates to what can “only” be different now that the age of [...]
China’s big problem can be succinctly described as where Economics met economics. Capital “E” Economics pushed authorities to over-financialize China in response to the Great “Recession”, which China’s government was only too enthusiastic to do even though its monetary regime at the PBOC better understood what was at the time happening than any of the central bankers in the West [...]
Thirty-nine delegates signed the United States Constitution in September 1787, but three refused to. George Mason, Edmund Randolph, and Elbridge Gerry were against the final draft of the document, Gerry included even though he had chaired the committee that had produced the Great Compromise. Campaigning in his native Massachusetts, the former Revolutionary who had previously served in the Continental Congress [...]
The CPI continued its meandering in November, increasing 1.69% year-over-year in a very slight acceleration to October’s 1.64% gain. As oil and energy prices this year are compared to the worst levels last year, the CPI is brought back up not to what it would look like in an actually robust growth period but rather what it was in the [...]
Stay In Touch