Economy

The Big German Zombie

By |2018-02-02T18:23:21-05:00February 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s kind of a cheap shot to go back and rehash corporate statements from way back in the past. Still, when the topic is banking and why the monetary system refuses more than intermittent and minor progress, it’s worth the revisit. What’s different now than before 2008, really August 2007, is far more than regulation. It’s the attitude that’s changed. [...]

More Hurricane Effects Wear Off; Auto Sales Slump in January

By |2018-02-02T17:23:45-05:00February 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The storm-assisted car-fest that ended last year appears to be fully winding down. Automakers overall posted weak sales to start 2018. They are putting on their best face, admitting widely that this year was going to be a tough one anyway as if they expected it. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, total sales (seasonally-adjusted) in January 2018 were [...]

Where’s The Inflation? Average Weekly Earnings Flat, Focus on 200k Instead Which Isn’t Even A Good Number

By |2018-02-02T15:36:55-05:00February 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The unemployment rate, I’m sorry to report, didn’t tumble all the way to zero. Pity. It did stay at 4.1% for the fourth straight month. Because of that, wage pressures should be exploding right now. That seems to be the verdict in markets this morning, a rumble of inflation shot right through everything at the release of the payroll report. [...]

The Unemployment Rate Could Be Zero…

By |2018-02-01T18:39:51-05:00February 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One more point on the hourly compensation estimates as they relate to this supposed labor shortage. As I wrote in examining the Beveridge Curve from a different, and ultimately more consistent, perspective: It just doesn’t work that way. In a real labor shortage, wage gains wouldn’t be modest because they couldn’t be modest. If they are modest, then the shortage [...]

Where’s The Boom (Serious Question)?

By |2018-02-01T18:25:02-05:00February 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If there is a boom here, I just don’t see it. Perhaps the term itself needs to be clearly defined. The common definition is a broad-based and sustained expansion, one that is beneficial to a wide cross-section of any society experiencing it. Since this is still nominally a capitalist system, eroded as it may be in some parts, “broad” would [...]

How Global And Synchronized Is A Boom Without China?

By |2018-02-01T16:26:07-05:00February 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to China’s official PMI’s, those looking for a boom to begin worldwide in 2018 after it failed to materialize in 2017 are still to be disappointed. If there is going to be globally synchronized growth, it will have to happen without China’s participation in it. Of course, things could change next month or the month after, but this idea [...]

(Chicken) Hawkish

By |2018-01-31T16:11:50-05:00January 31st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You have to go back four years for some honesty. The FOMC in January 2014 could be more forthright simply because the committee’s members believed they wouldn’t ever have to explain themselves. They voted to taper QE at the end of 2013 with the expectation that the economy would perform as their econometric models laid out. Thus, they could say: [...]

Yellen’s Final Cacophony

By |2018-01-30T18:26:49-05:00January 30th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In late January 2012, the FOMC released an official statement confirming to the world what had long been expected. The official goal of monetary policy, or at least one of them, was to achieve price stability being clearly defined as 2% inflation (PCE Deflator). It was part of the ultimate transformation of Federal Reserve policy, from the hidden, intentionally opaque [...]

You Know What They Say About Appearances

By |2018-01-30T16:46:41-05:00January 30th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It used to be a big deal, the kind of move that would itself move markets all over the world. Very quietly, JPY has been trading higher over recent weeks and has reached a level of appreciation we haven’t seen since those rocky days in early September. Only then, a rising yen (falling dollar) was a sign of bad things, [...]

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