The problem continues to be, I’m sure, is one of perception. Economists, politicians, and mostly central bankers have been saying for years that the real economy is the one you see in the unemployment rate. Things are booming. The labor market is awesome, even epically tight. Between last year and this year, going by the unemployment rate the economy has [...]
I don’t think anyone really noticed the timing because nobody really noticed it had happened. What took place last year qualifies as a big deal in the world of central banking and moneyless monetary policy. The lack of clarity about it as well as what sure looks like indecision portrays an intellectual foundation at odds with public perception. First, the [...]
Chairman Powell’s hawkishness, so called, has made its way into the historical revisions for Personal Income estimates. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released today the annual benchmark revisions to NIPA, the National Income and Product Accounts, which apply to Personal Income and Personal Spending. We’ve already seen the results for GDP and underlying data for corporate profits. What the [...]
The Chinese simply did what every Economics textbook currently in print says you are supposed to do. When confronted with a downturn, no matter its size you borrow your way through it. In fact, it says the greater the contraction the more you need to lean on finance. The neo-Keynesian model is unyielding on the matter. Using debt to boost [...]
You can see it in the GDP numbers, even before they were revised. Globally synchronized growth was always less impressive than what it was made out to be. It’s as true overseas as in the US. The upswing was endlessly hyped, but there was so much less behind it in reality. Reflation #2 was a whole lot better than Reflation [...]
It usually takes them a little while, a couple of benchmark adjustments to better conform to the true shape. Today’s GDP report included the latest revisions to the underlying data. Overall, not much changed. The changes are applied to Q1 2014 and forward, upping Real GDP growth slightly in 2015, adding a little bit more to the tail end of [...]
It is ironic that the setting for his speech was London. The UK, of course, never gave up the pound in favor of adopting the euro. Still, as the years drag on the biggest menace to Europe’s common currency isn’t a profligate Greek government nor the unfavorable productivity of Club Med. The euro may not disappear all at once, but [...]
It’s only a confusing when you just accept the booming economy of the unemployment rate. From this perspective, 2018 was, and more so 2019 is, a downright conundrum. By all mainstream accounts, this just shouldn’t be happening. Home sales are running at a pace similar to 2015 levels – even with exceptionally low mortgage rates, a record number of jobs [...]
The popular image of the German industrial machine politics is one which has Germany’s massive factories efficiently churning out goods for trade with the South of Europe (Club Med). Because of the common currency, numerous disparities starting with productivity differences had left the South highly indebted to the North just as the Global Financial Crisis would strike. The aftermath of [...]
In the official narrative, the economy is robust and resilient. The fundamentals, particularly the labor market, are solid. It’s just that there has arisen an undercurrent or crosscurrent of some other stuff. Central bankers initially pointed the finger at trade wars and the negative “sentiment” it creates across the world but they’ve changed their view somewhat. A few billion in [...]
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