Markets

Apartment Construction Hits Orbit, Which Actually Might Not Be A Good Sign

By |2015-07-17T11:44:06-04:00July 17th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The single family housing market, at least from the view of new construction, continues on as it has for the past two years. There isn’t really much taking place, as new construction plods along in a curious stasis, sort of continuing to scrape along the bottom of the barrel. Permits and starts were again near 700k, SAAR, but that remains [...]

Japan Proving The Monetary Black Hole

By |2015-07-17T10:59:35-04:00July 17th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Japanese household spending increased 5.5% in nominal terms in May; 4.8% in real spending growth. That was the first monthly increase since November and since it was a positive number, and not as typically close to zero, it is being hailed as another great sign of QQE success. With Q1 GDP revised up to nearly 5%, economists are back to [...]

A Wrinkle In The Eurodollar Supply

By |2015-07-16T11:43:50-04:00July 16th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Goldman Sachs reported weak earnings today, following Bank of America Merrill Lynch yesterday. The core problem at each is their dealer businesses, though it is difficult to get at that central function in the lumpy, conglomerated mess that passes for (incomplete) financial statements. Goldman’s FICC “revenue” dropped by almost a third in the second quarter from a Q2 2014 that [...]

Stock Bubble And Its Buyback Genesis Suddenly Vulnerable

By |2015-07-15T17:16:06-04:00July 15th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Having now passed the anniversary of the “rising dollar”, it is interesting to see the related and continued effects on the stock bubble(s). As should be obvious by now, stock buybacks, funded via corporate bonds and loosely categorized C&I loans, are responsible for the post-QE3 nearly uninterrupted rise. Repurchases are forming a separate “liquidity” conduit, indirect leverage if you will, [...]

US IP Only Slowing Somewhat

By |2015-07-15T15:27:41-04:00July 15th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

US industrial production was slightly higher in June on a seasonally-adjusted basis, but the year-over-year growth rate fell to a new “cycle” low. While the monthly measure was 0.33% above May, it was up only 1.54% over June 2014 following a Y/Y gain of just (revised) 1.62% last month. The 6-month average is again below 3% for the first time [...]

The ‘Dollar’s’ Grand Masterpiece Almost In Full View

By |2015-07-15T11:49:08-04:00July 15th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When US retail sales jumped in May on seasonal adjustments alone, economists and mainstream commentary lost all composure as they were certain that meant the “slump” was over and the dominant narrative would continue. The same occurred in Europe over a slight pickup in overall lending, not even in the household or business sectors, which was proclaimed as nothing but [...]

Credit In The Middle

By |2015-07-14T17:13:49-04:00July 14th, 2015|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Where money markets seem to be regularly unsettled, credit markets are quite the opposite. Those two polar interpretations may, in fact, be quite related as credit markets are not really supposed to be so placid. Yet, here we find them again lacking much determination in any one direction. Inflation breakevens which were steadily rising from January 15 to May 6 [...]

July 15 Is Still Quite Interesting Even If Not To Be Disorderly

By |2015-07-14T16:46:03-04:00July 14th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With Greece settled and China moving away, for now at least, from the edge, it appears as if the “dollar” has settled back from the collateral calls of last week. That would make July 15 as seemingly as much of a dud as April 15 was, both in sharp contrast to October 15 and then January 15. That does not [...]

The Recovery Fallacy

By |2015-07-14T12:29:52-04:00July 14th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In looking through the CBO’s litany of economic projections, past and present, I wrote yesterday that the major economic problem started to become clear by what was missing. The main orthodox models all view economic potential in much the same fashion, as if the economy exists completely upon a curve of inflation and employment, whereby the intersection of those two [...]

Go to Top