5-year/5-year forward inflation rate

Credit Discounting Contrary Probabilities

By |2015-12-29T18:06:16-05:00December 29th, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In addition to global “dollar” markets, the treasury curve and “inflation” trading both suggest more so disruptive potential than the optimistic path forward laid out by the FOMC’s policy decision. Upward monetary policy adjustments are in anticipation of “overheating” or an economy in the predicate position for its imminent take off. Since credit markets are discounting mechanisms in a manner [...]

Yellen’s Last Resort Inflation Anchor Died Last Year

By |2015-10-20T15:09:26-04:00October 20th, 2015|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has become something of a spectacle in the past year or so. As the FOMC claims to be data dependent upon its on schedule for ending ZIRP, Bullard’s interjecting media appearances seem to straddle either side, the exact which he takes being dependent on maybe not data but at least markets. While stocks seem [...]

Goodnight Janet; Credit Follows The ‘Dollar’ Now

By |2015-09-29T14:27:43-04:00September 29th, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On this side of the “dollar” world, credit markets have all but written Janet Yellen into irrelevance. Despite her pleas (because of?) last week, there isn’t any part of money dealing or fixed income that is taking her “certainty” about recovery and “inflation” as even a partial setting. So lost is the FOMC, that everywhere you turn these markets are [...]

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