It’s always been easy to lose perspective. In the modern social media age, maybe it has become even easier. Conventional wisdom rarely seems to get challenged anymore, particularly given the assignment of “what everybody knows.” Big Data is, for example, predicated on a very good theory, the wisdom of crowds. It hasn’t yet lived up to its expectations because as [...]
On April 29, 2011, the US benchmark oil price (WTI) surged above $113 per barrel. It wasn’t just American oil prices, either, as other benchmarks around the world were on a huge run. It was the highest for crude oil in three years, going back to the weeks immediately following Lehman. At that price, more so the parabolic trajectory, it [...]
All economics and finance can be dissolved and distilled into analysis of patterns. Whether that takes the form of a hardened, quantitative approach or something more toward the “eye of the beholder” depends on many factors. I find it useful to blend the two to find compliments and, perhaps more importantly, divergences. Oftentimes the real trick is discerning when one [...]
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