brazil

The Inescapable Trap of the ‘Dollar Short’; Brazil Edition

By |2015-12-30T15:46:35-05:00December 30th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For bond ratings agencies, finding a bottom is pretty much their job. In other words, they are supposed to map out and understand, as best as may be possible through regressions and equations, the forces that might define a worst case. By direct implication, a worst case probability is determined by at least some ray of hope, some perhaps buried [...]

The Inescapable Trap of the ‘Dollar Short’ Is The Short; Russian Edition

By |2015-12-30T11:22:22-05:00December 30th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Though most of Russia’s territory belongs in Asia, it would be difficult to characterize Russian finances as “Asian.” Most of the dirty work is done in the financial centers of Moscow, but in the past year and a half under the “rising dollar” paradigm, Russian financial existence may be more Asian than geography alone might permit. The similarities are perhaps [...]

The Economy They Hope Or The Money That Is?

By |2015-12-16T16:37:47-05:00December 16th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Now that the FOMC has done it, we get to hear about how it was surely the “right” time for it. Unlike September, conditions are supposedly an order of magnitude more settled. That has given the policymaking economists the green light to make sure they start the normalization process before “overheating” becomes the central concern. With August a fading memory, [...]

Global Trade Confirmations; Economy As Finance

By |2015-12-08T12:35:56-05:00December 8th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s trade estimates continue the trend of the global economy pushing closer to recession, assuming that it is not already there. We know that the lower part of the global supply chain below Chinese manufacturing and assembly, the resources and materials flow, has already been pushed beyond simple recession in some places, like Brazil, into defining a new disastrous economic [...]

Yet, It Is Likely To Get Worse

By |2015-12-02T18:11:25-05:00December 2nd, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The GDP statistics for Brazil as of Q3 2015 were worse than expected in every way imaginable. Real GDP fell 4.5% Y/Y, which is nearly double the worst quarter Brazil experienced during the Great Recession. Household spending fell 1.7%, the third consecutive quarter of contraction, while fixed investment declined an astounding 15%. That was the sixth straight reduction and the [...]

Ending Recovery

By |2015-12-01T16:34:50-05:00December 1st, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On November 9, the OECD issued its twice-yearly Economic Outlook statbook, updated for projections into Q3 for most national economic accounts. Despite past enthusiasm for global prospects in 2015, the narrative has not-so-subtly shifted, a major transformation coming from an orthodox bastion like the OECD. Global growth prospects have clouded this year. Global growth has eased to around 3%, well [...]

Looking To The Future

By |2015-11-20T11:27:33-05:00November 20th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The problem with Brazil is that its central bank has done everything the monetary textbook requires of it. Setting aside that Banco itself is a literal mishmash of public and private interests (what central bank isn’t?), the freefall in the Brazilian economy of late is simply puzzling to the mainstream. Unlike the US or Europe, at least the descent is [...]

Deeper Look At August ‘Dollar’ Run

By |2015-11-06T11:06:22-05:00November 6th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The TIC update for August estimates provided some clarity on several accounts. Given the nastiness of the “dollar” environment in that month it was certain that the Treasury Department would display negative “dollar” conditions, and that was the case. The numerous subcomponents and categories were quite useful in corroborating that picture, even if there was some work and re-orientation in [...]

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