business cycle

What Would The Hole Be Without The ‘L’?

By |2020-05-27T17:23:45-04:00May 27th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s a pretty simple question, at least when asked by a member of the American citizenry not already compelled by one bias or another. Did the 2009 “stimulus” bill (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act; or ARRA) work? The answer depends upon who you ask, including breaking down along partisan lines. To Democrat Economists, it absolutely did. For their Republican counterparts, [...]

US Sales and Production Remain Virus-Free, But Still Aren’t Headwind-Free

By |2020-02-14T17:18:26-05:00February 14th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The lull in US consumer spending on goods has reached a fifth month. The annual comparisons aren’t good, yet they somewhat mask the more recent problems appearing in the figures. According to the Census Bureau, total retail sales in January rose 4.58% year-over-year (unadjusted). Not a good number, but better, seemingly, than early on in 2019 when the series was [...]

Duncan Says One Thing, Chicago Doesn’t Really Say Something Else

By |2020-02-01T15:14:05-05:00February 1st, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The boom never boomed. That’s what made the bond and money curves so flat in 2018. The data, the real economy behind the numbers, never matched the rhetoric. Even GDP. We’re in much the same position today, only starting from much weaker and worse. The rhetoric is still positive, except now it’s about a turnaround. But, and this is the [...]

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