cpi – Page 4 – Alhambra Investments

Federal Reserve’s Own Inflation Expectations Surveys More Agree w/Euro$ Futures Inversion Than Rate Hikes

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2022-02-14T19:14:27-05:00February 14th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The FOMC is going to hike rates maybe even aggressively. There’s not much dispute on this assumption. Why the Committee might be doing so, that’s a whole detailed debate. The Treasury yield curve is building toward inversion while the crucial (and leading) Euro$ futures curve is already substantially upside down.Both are increasingly confident market bets against the FOMC’s position(s).Jay Powell [...]

Sky High CPI and the Surging Conflict of Interest (rates)

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2022-02-11T13:25:50-05:00February 11th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

NOTE: This post was written on Thursday, February 10. This isn’t typical. Both the speed at which this has come about and the depth to which the it has now sunk, the yield curve’s wild flattening is simply breathtaking. Today’s accelerating CPI print accelerated the distortions all over the Treasury market such that it has taken a shape along key [...]

Flipping Several Scripts

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2022-01-18T19:54:15-05:00January 18th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The script has been flipped, so to speak, this time around. Whenever we’d go through one of those regular, alternating downturns worldwide, like the one which began right from the start of 2018, it was services which held up the increasingly troubled manufacturing sector. The variation for the swing, from globally synchronized growth to globally synchronized downturn, was mostly contained [...]

The Historic Christmas Binge

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2022-01-14T17:00:05-05:00January 14th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The reason that store shelves are occasionally empty, as any social media hashtag trend will tell you, is that Americans are still buying an amazing amount of goods. For December 2021, Christmas was hardly canceled. The Census Bureau today reported that retailers during the biggest month of last year, of every year, grabbed an astoundingly huge $714 billion in overall [...]

US CPI Reaches Seven On US Goods Prices, With Disinflation Setting In Everywhere Else (incl. US Services)

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2022-01-12T17:33:56-05:00January 12th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How is that US Treasury rates out in the independent longer end of the yield curve have now “suffered” a seven percent CPI to go along with double taper and triple maybe quadruple (if the whispers are to be believed) rate hikes this year, yet have weathered all of that allegedly bond-busting brutality with barely a market fluctuation? The short [...]

One Shock Case For ‘Irrational Exuberance’ Reaching A Quarter-Century

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-12-17T20:28:27-05:00December 17th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Have oil producers shot themselves in the foot, while at the same time stabbing the global economy in the back? It’d be quite a feat if it turns out to be the case, one of those historical oddities that when anyone might honestly look back on it from the future still hung in disbelief. Let’s start by reviewing just the [...]

Taper Rejection

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-12-15T20:17:02-05:00December 15th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the FOMC, there was no alternative. The CPI’s keep going higher while the unemployment rate continues lower. Those who are Economists and practice Economics’ brand of econometrics, these would be scary times ahead. Inflationary times unless someone puts a stop to them first. Not because of consumer prices today, but because officials are worried consumers are becoming normalized to [...]

Omicron Fears Fading, CPI Huge-r Still, Fed Hinting At Accelerated Taper, And Yet Euro$ Inversion (and other things) Is Still Here

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-12-10T19:51:56-05:00December 10th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The bond market is imploding, right? It has to be going by everything you hear. Did you know that the last two 30-year bond auctions had gone “awry”, as one mainstream news outlet put it? Another "media" shop declared them “catastrophic.”The second of those long bond sales was conducted just yesterday afternoon, right in time to run into the buzzsaw [...]

The Higher The CPI, The Less For Inflation

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-12-10T17:39:10-05:00December 10th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It hurts, so people want to know what to blame. Who should they punish for inflicting their pain? Enter human bias and the emotional processing of preconceived conclusions, “inflation” is no longer a topic which can be discussed rationally. A statistical weapon instead to be wielded attempting to settle other debates.Joe Biden did it. No, this is a Biden Boom, [...]

No, The Fed Does Not Rig The Bond Market And It Only Takes Five Seconds To Debunk This Myth

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-18T15:35:10-05:00November 18th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The bond market’s verdict has already been rendered. In fact, the judgment was made even before this year’s CPIs surged to the highest they’d been in a long time. The most consistently accurate and only historically validated source for sorting and signaling inflation, low yields aren’t just skeptical in being low they are unequivocal in remaining steadfastly ultra-low.For those who [...]

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