I’m not saying it is the whole story, but it’s not just random coincidence, either. It can’t be. At each inflection point when the global eurodollar system rolls over from reflation to the next major funding squeeze, you will find the debt ceiling nonsense rolled on into that process. Every time. On September 8, 2017, the debt ceiling was temporarily [...]
This wasn’t meant to be a running tally. In fact, that was my major point in yesterday’s curve inversion missive; the thing inverted, it stayed inverted for a second day but maybe won’t change much for some time moving forward. Boring and consistent, what matters most in this first stage is only that the inversion sticks rather than expecting big [...]
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: dollar up for reasons no one can explain; yield curve flattening dramatically resisting the BOND ROUT!!! everyone has said is inevitable; a very hawkish Fed increasingly certain about inflation risks; then, the eurodollar curve inverts which blasts Jay Powell’s dreamland in favor of the proper interpretation, deflation, of those first two. Twenty-eighteen, right? [...]
Flatter. The yield curve continues to shrink in the important middle calendar spaces where growth and inflation expectations run the place. Treasuries have been doing this since around March, a peculiar (given monolithic mainstream reporting otherwise) eight-month reign of growing pessimism rather than inflationary confidence. Did the market foresee omicron more than half a year ago? No. That’s not really [...]
It’s always a balance of probabilities tug-of-war. Markets (not stocks) are continuously trying to discern risk since everything is really converted to some kind of risk-adjusted basis. And if the perceived weight of those tilts downward thinking forward, then it may not matter much or at all what’s going on right now.What’s going on right now is, according to everyone, [...]
The bond market’s verdict has already been rendered. In fact, the judgment was made even before this year’s CPIs surged to the highest they’d been in a long time. The most consistently accurate and only historically validated source for sorting and signaling inflation, low yields aren’t just skeptical in being low they are unequivocal in remaining steadfastly ultra-low.For those who [...]
The TIC data is great, it’s fantastic and wonderful if by comparison to the utterly slim pickings available elsewhere – which is practically nil. Compared to what I’d really like to know, the series leaves a ton out there. This is understandable if still unforgivable; on the one hand, the Treasury International Capital report itself predates the eurodollar system by [...]
Milton Friedman was touring India, and while there he shocked his audience by stating, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” This was 1963, and the audacity of that statement is today understated. Back then, Keynes didn’t just rule there was hardly any opposition to such accepted orthodox dogma.Arguing from firmly empirical rather than theoretical grounds, Friedman’s effort was [...]
Picking up where we left off from our review of the first series of landmines, including the big one at the end of 2008, the world has been rocked by these things in almost continuous succession. Every couple of years, “everyone” says the world is recovering from the previous “unexpected” shock only to find instead how the global system ends [...]
Representatives in Congress from both parties were understandably apoplectic. Amidst the world’s worst monetary chaos since the Great Collapse after October 1929, legislators had been told by everyone from central bankers to all the right Economists how laws needed to passed right away, no delay, which would give the Bush Administration authority to buy up the “toxic waste” each had [...]
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