eurodollar futures

LIBOR Was Expected To Drop. It Dropped. What Might This Mean?

By |2019-02-07T17:27:16-05:00February 7th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Everyone hates LIBOR, until it does something interesting. It used to be the most boring interest rate in the world. When it was that, it was also the most important. Though it followed along federal funds this was only because of the arb between onshore (NYC) and offshore (mainly London, sometimes Caymans) conducted by banks between themselves and their subs [...]

What Bond Bull Really Means

By |2019-02-04T17:24:39-05:00February 4th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As the saying goes, the plural of anecdotes is not data. It might also be said that the plethora of anecdotes does not make for accurate news. Before around mid-December 2018, media outlets particularly those like Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal anxious to vindicate the technocrats at the Federal Reserve couldn’t print enough stories about the labor shortage. Barely [...]

Bond Curves Right All Along, But It Won’t Matter (Yet)

By |2019-01-30T16:53:14-05:00January 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Men have long dreamed of optimal outcomes. There has to be a better way, a person will say every generation. Freedom is far too messy and unpredictable. Everybody hates the fat tails, unless and until they realize it is outlier outcomes that actually mark progress. The idea was born in the eighties that Economics had become sufficiently advanced that the [...]

The Politics of Spreading Inversion(s)

By |2019-01-03T18:14:44-05:00January 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Clothed in immense self-denial, hung up on absurd self-confidence, Federal Reserve officials gathered on August 7, 2007, to discuss how things really weren’t as bad as everyone seemed to think. There were several key conversations taking place at the FOMC meeting held then all leading nowhere. Policymakers would literally laugh off obvious distress in crucial markets. Here’s one example: MR. [...]

Arrived At Next; Moving Past Warnings Into Predictions

By |2019-01-03T12:44:05-05:00January 3rd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Chinese warned the world all the way back on October 8. The PBOC cut the RRR for a third time this year. Require reserves really had little to do with what was, and is, going wrong. Because the dollars just aren’t flowing to China. They didn’t last year, either, at least not directly (HK) even though CNY rose as [...]

Nothing To See Here, It’s Just Everything

By |2019-01-02T17:21:43-05:00January 2nd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The politics of oil are complicated, to say the least. There’s any number of important players, from OPEC to North American shale to sanctions. Relating to that last one, the US government has sought to impose serious restrictions upon the Iranian regime. Choking off a major piece of that country’s revenue, and source for dollars, has been a stated US [...]

Chart of the Week: The Dreaded Full Frown

By |2018-12-28T15:44:44-05:00December 28th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’m going to break my personal convention and use the bulk of the colors in the eurodollar futures spectrum, not just the single EDM’s (June) contained within each. The current front month is January 2019, and its quoted price as I write this is 97.2475. The EDH (March) 2019 contract trades at 97.29 currently and it will drop off the [...]

Uh Oh; In A Month Of Big Warnings, The Biggest Yet

By |2018-12-28T12:16:50-05:00December 28th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

All better now. It’s a Christmas miracle, the plunge erased by market closure as if FDR had just been re-elected and taken the oath. The Dow is on everyone’s mind, so trading on December 26 has understandably stuck. Stocks posted their best day in nearly a decade on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching its largest one-day point [...]

More Extraordinary Still

By |2018-12-07T18:43:33-05:00December 7th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There were rumors and whispers of a trade truce between China and the US. Wages domestically grew by the most since 2009, better than 3% last month. OPEC is going to be cutting oil production again. And most of all, for the mainstream narrative anyway, the Fed is about to go on a break. Why didn’t markets react positively to [...]

Converging Views Only Starts With Fed ‘Pause’

By |2018-12-06T18:25:19-05:00December 6th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There’s no sign of inflation, markets are unsettled, and now new economic data keeps confirming that dark side. Forget each month, every day there is something else suggesting a slowdown. That much had been evident across much of the global economy, but this is now different. The US has apparently been infected, too, not that that is any surprise. That’s [...]

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